In reading through the HLHoops power rankings, there were references to each team's records against the others in the "top 5". It got me to look a little deeper at where we've been and what the second half of the season holds.
I have confined this to the 7-2 (Valpo, CSU) and 6-3 (YSU, Butler and UWM) teams. While I still think 5-5 Detroit and Wright State can't be ruled out, to keep this somewhat manageable, I looked at the 5 teams clustered at the top of the standing.
Records versus the other top 5 teams:
Valpo 3-1
YSU, CSU and Butler 2-2
UWM 1-3
Home games remaining against other Top 5 teams:
UWM 4
YSU 3
CSU 2
Valpo 1
Butler 0
If the idea is to try to protect your home court against the other top teams, here are the first time through the league road winners:
Valpo won at Butler
CSU won at Butler
YSU won at CSU
UWM won at Valpo
On a net/net basis, YSU and UWM are +1, Butler is -2. Valpo and CSU have "held serve" by losing at home but winning on the road.
On a very simplistic level, YSU and UWM would seem to have the most favorable league schedules the rest of the way. Both are undefeated in the league at home and have the most home games against top 5 league teams.
YSU has 5 home, 4 road league games left. The road games are at UWM and three bottom teams in the league (UWGB, UIC and Loyola).
No game is easy in this league - YSU could win any of these games and could lose any of the games.
I think it will probably take at least 13-5 to finish second and get a bye to the semi-finals. What is YSU's road to 13-5? Probably needs to be 4-1 at home, 3-1 on the road. A tall order for sure.
Failing a bye to the semi-finals, a finish of 3rd through 6th nets a first round home game. Home wins over UDM and Wright State will be key to securing a home game.
Keep in mind that Milwaukee's arena is booked for the quarterfinals and semi-finals. If the Panthers finish #1, the second place team would host the quarters and semis. Normally you want to avoid being the bracket with the number 1 team - perhaps not this year although good luck figuring out what you are rooting for before the last game of the season is played.
