Article on pregame analysis from today’s Tribune/ Vindy:
There isn’t much of a prize for Youngstown State after hanging tough with the top-ranked team in the nation for the better part of four quarters last week.
The Penguins do return home, but they welcome No. 5 Northern Iowa in Game 2 of an odd eight-game Missouri Valley Football Conference schedule that makes every game even more important.
YSU (0-1, 0-1) was within striking distance of North Dakota State until midway through the fourth quarter, but the Penguins are going to need more offense to compete with the Panthers (0-1, 0-1).
UNI is led by standout quarterback Will McElvain, a first-team, all-conference pick. The Panthers, who suffered a heartbreaking last-second loss to South Dakota State in Week 1, also boast a stout defense, with nine returning starters and three all-MVFC picks.
YSU gained just 171 total yards in its loss to the Bison. First-year coach Doug Phillips is hoping for a better rushing attack (51 yards last week) as he waits for a starter to emerge among quarterbacks Mark Waid, a Girard graduate, and Joe Craycraft. One of the two is going to need to spark a stagnant YSU offense.
QUARTERBACKS
YSU — Waid and Craycraft were mostly ineffective as they were harassed by a dominant NDSU defense all game. Waid did finish 8-of-11 passing for 75 yards and one touchdown. He also ran for a team-high 26 yards, but sustaining drives was difficult against one of the nation’s top units. Phillips reiterated that both QBs will likely split time against UNI.
UNI — McElvain is arguably the best quarterback in the conference. He set a freshman school record for passing yards with 2,778 in 2019, throwing for 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He’s rather athletic, too, with one of his best strengths being his ability to avoid a pass rush to extend plays and then throw for big gains. His accuracy wasn’t great as a freshman (53.1 percent), but he was 19-of-29 last week against a tough South Dakota State defense.
EDGE — UNI
RUNNING BACKS
YSU — It was tough sledding for just about anyone who touched the ball for the Penguins on Sunday. Starter London Pearson ran for 5 yards on 10 carries. Jaleel McLaughlin added just 25 yards on nine attempts. Some of that has to do with NDSU’s dominant defensive line, and some of it has to do with the young, inexperienced offensive line of YSU. Either way, the Penguins, who have long been built around their rushing attack, must find ways to establish a run game moving forward.
UNI — The running game was non-existent against the Jackrabbits in Week 1 as the Panthers ran for 28 yards on 25 carries. Starter Dom Williams ran for all 28 yards. Tyler Hoosman, UNI’s second-leading rusher in 2019, was injured and his status is up in the air again this week. The Penguins struggled against a potent NDSU rushing attack, so it’ll be interesting to see how they hold up against a weaker run game.
EDGE — YSU
WIDE RECEIVERS
YSU — Natavious Payne has been one of the Penguins’ go-to receivers dating back to the 2019 season (when they last played). He wasn’t listed as a starter (and still isn’t), but C.J. Charleston did not participate in the game for an undisclosed reason, so Payne got the start. The speedy sophomore made two catches for 39 yards and continued to show the game-breaking speed he flashed two years ago. Jake Coates only caught one pass, but it went for a 12-yard TD. Florida Gators transfer Malick Mbodj was shutout in his first start as a Penguin.
UNI — The Panthers may be without first-team, all-conference receiver Isaiah Weston, who was injured early in last week’s matchup with SDSU. He would be a huge loss for McElvain and the passing game. He made 43 caches for 1,053 yards and 10 TDs in 2019, averaging 25 yards per grab. UNI does have a little bit of depth, and Phillips said he thinks the Panthers are a bit faster than SDSU on the outside. YSU played very well against the pass last week, but this could be a bigger test.
EDGE — Even
OFFENSIVE LINE
YSU — This is the area Youngstown State is hoping for the most growth. Four of the Penguins’ five starters had never played a down of college football prior to last week, which is a big problem for a unit that’s built on communication. Their first test was one of the best defensive fronts in the FCS, and UNI isn’t a slouch either. They’ll need to be a bit more consistent for YSU to find some offensive rhythm.
UNI — Northern Iowa endured a big loss when offensive tackle Spencer Brown decided to forgo his final season and enter the NFL Draft. The Panthers have a little experience in Trevor Penning, Justin Peine, Erik Sorensen and Matthew Vanderslice, all of whom are at least 6-6 and 300 pounds, but it’s just not the same without an anchor like Brown. YSU’s front four is probably the strength of the defense, so this will be a key matchup.
EDGE — UNI
DEFENSIVE LINE
YSU — Defensive end James Jackson had nice first start, with six tackles and one tackle-for-loss. DeMarko Craig was another player expected to contribute but did not participate. The sophomore had a huge first season in 2019, so his absence would be a big loss. Cardinal Mooney graduate Vinny Gentile played well against NDSU with five stops. Look for more from Antoine Cook at defensive end. The junior switched from tackle to DE and should improve as the year goes on. The line will play a pivotal role in keeping the elusive McElvain in the pocket.
UNI — UNI’s front is led by All-American nose tackle Jared Brinkman, who had seven sacks and 14.5 tackles-for-loss as a junior. Maybe more impressive was his 83 tackles — an incredible number for a defensive lineman. Defensive end Caden Houghtelling (6-3, 255) and tackle Tim Bucher (6-2, 300) are also veteran players that make this another formidable front for a young YSU offensive line.
EDGE — UNI
LINEBACKERS
YSU — Linebackers Grant Dixon and Griffin Hoak were busy against the Bison, who ran the ball 40 times. They tied for the team high in tackles with eight apiece. McElvain could make life tough on them as it’s hard for LBs to know when to stay in coverage and when to come up and make a tackle on the QB. The Panthers ran for a paltry 28 yards last week, but after YSU allowed 243 to NDSU, that could be an area UNI tries to exploit.
UNI — The Panthers’ linebackers are some of the best in the MVFC, led by first-team all-conference selection Bryce Flater. He led UNI in tackles with 143 in 2019, adding eight TFLs, one interception and a forced fumble. Spencer Cuvelier was the third leading tackler with 88 stops. The lone newcomer is Eric Mooney, who switched offense to defense.
EDGE — UNI
SECONDARY
YSU — A young YSU secondary played exceptional against the Bison, who passed for just 74 yards. Three of the Penguins’ four defensive backs are first-year starters, but they kept star wide receiver Christian Watson in check. They could have a tougher task against UNI, which has a quicker overall receiving corps and a veteran QB. Strong safety Zaire Jones has been one of YSU’s best defenders since his arrival from Vanderbilt in 2018.
UNI — Corner Omar Brown is another All-American on a defense that returned nine starters from two years ago. The 6-foot, 195-pound Brown made six interceptions (second most in the MVFC) and also had 77 tackles. Fellow corner Austin Evans is another solid player. He had 73 stops and two picks in 2019. Safety Korby Sander was a starter in 2018 before sitting out 2019 with an injury.
EDGE — UNI
SPECIALISTS
YSU — Coach Phillips said first-year punter Paddy Lynch, an Australian native, was reading a book about football on the plane trip to Fargo, North Dakota. He must have learned something because he had a strong day, averaging 42 yards on six punts. Aside from a 26-yard return on a punt, YSU’s coverage units were solid. The kicking game could be tough considering the unpredictable playing conditions.
UNI — Place kicker Matthew Cook was a first-team all-conference pick after making 19-of-24 field goals in 2019, with a long of 50. Nate Murphy is a solid punter, averaging 44.6 yards on six kicks against the Jackrabbits.
EDGE — UNI
PREDICTION
This is another brutal matchup for a young YSU team, especially on defense.
Nine starters return for a stout UNI defense that boasts all-MVFC players at each level. That makes for another difficult test for a vastly inexperienced offensive line.
The Penguins’ offense must find some rhythm, and YSU will again rely on what has the makings of an impressive defense. It will be tough to hold McElvain down for four quarters though.
UNI, 24-10
