For anyone interested, here's a good pre season summary from a member on Michigan's On3 board.
The Wolverines badly underachieved last season, missing the NCAA tournament despite the presence of two wings who were top 15 NBA draft choices and a center who was a first team All-Big Ten player. Now, each of those stars is gone. Will this mean disaster for Juwan Howard’s team—if you can’t win with those guys, how bad are you going to be without them? Or, like many, many examples from the past including but not limited to Wisconsin ’21-’22 and Michigan ’10-’11, will the departure of top players from an underachieving team lead to a new, more connected group and highly improved results?
Michigan has talent. Sophomore point guard Dug McDaniel, a top 100 recruit, was a revelation after being forced into a starting spot and extraordinarily heavy minutes by the season-ending injury to Jaelin Llewellyn. He has the ability to become a top-of-the-line Big Ten point guard. Transfer Olivier Nkamhoua (Tennessee) is a long, plus athlete who keyed the Volunteers’ number 1 ranked national defense and averaged 10.8/5.0 in Tennessee’s egalitarian offensive system. Transfer Nimari Burnett (Alabama), a former McDonald’s All American, was, per his coach, Alabama’s best perimeter defender (prior to being injured) on a team which ranked third nationally in defensive efficiency. Sophomore Tarris Reed, a top 40 recruit, was terrific defensively and on the glass during his freshman season. Transfer Trey Jackson (Seton Hall), also a top 100 recruit, was a 38.9% 3-point shooter over the last two season on over 125 3-point attempts. That’s five of the likely top six in the rotation. It isn’t a group stocked with NBA talent, or even one with offensive talent near that of recent Michigan teams, but there is talent there, and importantly, the makings of a potentially elite defensive squad.
Can this group, combined with newcomer George Washington III, the Ohio Gatorade Player of the Year and returnees such as Llewellyn, Terrance Williams II, Youssef Khayat and Will Tschetter, exceed the record of last year’s more talented group and return to the NCAA tournament? There are certainly issues which need to be solved before that can occur, most notably on the offensive end. Who shoots and spaces the floor? Can McDaniel reach his potential if the perimeter shooting is sub-par given his size and freshman struggles near the basket? Is there a secondary playmaker on the roster and, if not, how will this affect McDaniel’s efficiency and stamina? Can Nkamhoua, who was an excellent secondary option at Tennessee become a primary option at Michigan after teasing the ability to do that with a 27-point outburst against Duke in the NCAA round of 32? Can Reed, who was a very good offensive player in high school revert to form on that end of the court? Can Burnett, who had a green light to shoot the ball at Alabama but only shot 31% from 3 improve that percentage and be the secondary playmaker required? Can Llewellyn return to the form he flashed at Princeton which made him a coveted transfer (and a top 100 recruit), or even contribute at all after his injury? What can be expected of others such as Williams, who was good as a sophomore rotation player but bad as a junior starter, Khayat, who has great potential but limited experience, Washington, a great shooter and good athlete but an undersized 2 and a freshman to boot, and/or Tschetter, a hard-nosed “motor guy” who came in with a perimeter shooting rep but failed to deliver on that in his first season? Lots and lots of questions. While not all of them have to be answered affirmatively for Michigan to be successful on the offensive end, some, especially those surrounding McDaniel and Nkamhoua, do for Michigan to be a good offensive team.
There is a caveat here, however—even if Michigan is not a good offensive team, it may not be much worse than last year’s team on offense if it is worse at all. For all the talent on the ’22-’23 team, Michigan finished the season 48th in national offensive efficiency, a spot below the defense. That number was an outlier compared to Howard’s previous rankings at Michigan (21st, 9th and 20th respectively on offense), despite the top end talent. Too often last year, the half-court offense consisted of one of the “big three” going one on one while others stood around and watched, and the transition game too often consisted of solo forays by McDaniel while the rest trailed behind. Michigan ranked 301st nationally last season in assist rate per baskets made which is atrocious. A more connected team should significantly improve on that stat.
A second question area concerns depth, especially at the guard spots. Last year’s team started with three scholarship guards on the roster and lost one which was a huge blow. This year’s team starts with four IF Llewellyn, who has not yet been fully cleared by the Michigan medical staff, can play and significantly contribute. McDaniel is the only genuine point guard. An injury to him would be catastrophic. An injury to Burnett would be severely limiting, and even one to Washington would hurt quite a bit if Llewellyn is unable to effectively contribute. Michigan must stay healthy at the guard position to reach the team’s pre-season goals.
Despite this multiplicity of questions, there are at least three areas where Michigan rates to be significantly better. The first is defense. This is a team with at least three players (Nkamhoua, Burnett and Reed) who have All-Big Ten Defensive Team potential. If it comes together for this team, and it embraces a defensive identity, this could be an elite defensive team. It is also much, much more experienced, which should take care of some of the defensive breakdowns from last season, and versatile. With Dickinson, Michigan was playing drop coverage out of necessity on every ball screen and not playing it especially well. Now, there are options.
A second area of potential improvement is on the offensive glass. Reed, Nkamhoua and Williams are good/excellent offensive rebounders, and Michigan flashed this by coralling almost 40% of available offensive rebounds in the scrimmage against Marquette. If you miss shots and get to try again, it certainly makes your offense more efficient.
The third is in the just blind luck category. Michigan was horrendous last year in close games against quality teams, and it could be a team with similar (or maybe even slightly worse) efficiency stats and a better record simply if the end-of-game outcomes are better. Howard’s end-of-game coaching has come in for much criticism, and deservedly so in some instances, but the truth is that a coach’s close game stats are less indicative of coaching than they are of chance elements. The examples of this are numerous. As just a few, between December 2015 when Greg Gard took over at Wisconsin, and April 2022 when Jay Wright retired at Villanova, Gard and Wright had virtually identical winning percentages in close games (to the third decimal point). No one in his/her right mind would equate Gard and Wright as coaches or even end-of-game coaches, or Villanova and Wisconsin as programs during that period. Meanwhile, Bob Huggins, who was a sure-fire Hall of Famer if he would have just taken Ubers after drinking (and may still be one), was under 50% in such games going into last season over a 15-year span at West Virginia. One more in another sport--the 2005 Chicago White Sox won the World Series after a 32-7 regular season record in one run games then missed the playoffs altogether the next season with a better team because things equalized in the close games category. If things equalize for Michigan this year, or even come close for Michigan his season, the win/loss impact could be noticeable.
In a league where every team has questions, Michigan has more than its share, and we haven’t even talked about the uncertainty caused by Howard’s recent heart surgery. However, there are potential answers, an identity to rely upon, and a ton of experience. With health, Michigan could very well be the type of team which exceeds expectations this season, just as Northwestern, Maryland and Penn State were last season. Championship contender? No. Tournament contender and possible/even likely participant? Absolutely.
