The NCAA Simple Ratings System

[Wick250]

Don't read this unless you want to get very angry.  But if you read the Any Given Saturday site, you know that some have uncovered the not so mysterious or secret methodology behind the NCAA SRS (simple ratings system) that the selection committee uses, in conjunction with strength-of-schedule, to fill the at large berths.  Turns out this information was on the 15th page of an NCAA release about the FCS playoffs.

Simply put, this is an abomination.  Why?  Because it treats EVERY FCS PROGRAM AS AN EQUAL.  For example, if we beat Illinois State in Normal or NDSU in Fargo, we would get 1.25 points for each win.  But if a Southland team wins a road game against the garbage at the bottom of their conference (for example, Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, or Nichols,) they get 1.25 points for each win.

Here is how it works.  If you win a home game against a FCS opponent (any FCS opponent including Paladin's "weenies,") you get 0.75 points.  If you win a road game against a FCS opponent, you get 1.25 points.

If you lose a road game against a FCS opponent, you suffer a 0.75 point reduction.  If you lose a home game against a FCS opponent, you lose 1.25 points.

Here is an even worse feature.  Lose to a FBS foe and suffer a 0.65 points reduction.  Beat one of those and you get only 1.35 points.  Seriously.  I am not making this up.

Anyway, here is how the contenders in the MVFC stand now under this ridiculous formula with three weeks remaining.  This has not been published anywhere.  Just access the results and use a calculator.

8.85 NDSU
5.50 Illinois State
4.25 Youngstown State
3.85 Indiana State
1.45 Northern Iowa
0.75 Southern Illinois
0      SDSU

How about contenders from the CAA, given that New Hampshire and Villanova are locks.

4.85 Richmond
3.45 James Madison
1.35 William and Mary

And what about that logjam atop the Big Sky conference

6.0   Eastern Washington
3.75 Northern Arizona
2.85 Cal Poly
2.75 Montana
2.75 Montana State
2.6   Idaho State

Keep in mind that this absurd ratings system supposedly counts only 50% for the at large selections.  SOS counts the other 50% and every MVFC team will profit there.  And conferences with lots of dogs at the bottom (Southland and Big Sky) should be hurt by SOS too.

[Spiderlegs]

I actually see your numbers as favorable to YSU.  As I have it, the 10 conferences right now have 34 teams on track for 8 win seasons. There are only 23 playoff spots.  (The 24th spot goes to the Pioneer Conference auto bid--I assume it will only get one team in regardless record.)  With the 10 automatic bids and 9 teams on track for 9 win seasons, which leaves 15 teams competing for 4 spots.  I have YSU at 8-4 going for one of the four.  We have to assume McNeese St. will get one of the 4, so YSU is really going to be only 1 of 3. The problem is that some of the FCS media darlings are also competing for the 3, e.g., James Madison, Sam Houston St, Liberty, so I could see YSU left out.  (It gets even more complicated if UNI upsets NDSU.)
 
Your numbers suggest to me that YSU ranks above others, including some of potential 9 win teams.
 
Too early to do the victory dance.  YSU will have to prove its worth on the field.

[penguinpower]

The NCAA took down the SRS formula from their Web site.  In addition they left a clause in there that basically allows them to choose whomever they want.  It is complete bullsh**.

Until last year less than 7 D-I wins would take a team out of consideration for the playoffs.  Last year they changed it so that they can have the discretion to include a 6 D-I win team (Sam Houston State. However, it appears that they are no longer allowing any 5 loss teams.   Pair that with the fact that they state the SRS is only an aid and the strength of schedule factors into the decision and you have nothing but a hot mess.  There is nothing scientific about the selection process.   It is all political and now that they have removed the GPI they can justify anything they want after they've made the decision.  It is worse now than it was in the past.

Since millions of dollars are on line due to the amount of investment I believe legal action should be taken to standardize the selection process and each person must publish their results in the interim.   Unfortunately the SRS means nothing so don't pay attention to it.  The selection committee rarely takes an MVFC team at large unless they share part of the conference title.  It is completely wrong when you consider that there are 3 two loss teams above Illinois State at this point.  And they have Fordham (who was blown out vs Villanova) above every MVFC team right now except NDSU. That is politics.

[ysubigred]

  My two cents... UNTIL!! YSU has a schedule and/or a good body of work that warrants a playoff berth I'll start to b**** and complain like the rest of you. LAST YEARS YSU TEAM did not belong in the playoff's!! This year YSU has quality wins. Winning one of the last 3 game should/will get them in. Lose all 3 and they are out. Face it the MVFC is the red headed step child of 1FCS and the stupid bag they have as a comish has no pull to get the best teams from a strong conference in. This is why the AUTO-BID needs to stop and a selection process of taking the 16-24 best teams needs to happen even "IF" that means taking 10 teams from the same conference  The current system is politically driven kind of like pee-wee soccer "everybody gets a trophy"

[Penguin Nation]

Interesting, although old, thread re: the SRS:

http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=38146

[GOpenZ]

"Simple" is just that...it obviously does not account for enough factors.  If the algorithm you are using is correct...and the SRS is in fact used to pull in teams for atlarge berths, then I would say that our scheduling (weaker teams known as 1-AAA) has been handled appropriately to get us ranked as high as possible in the SRS.

This does not mean I agree with the SRS in any way...but it should be considered when bashing those who form our schedule.

Having additional ways to rate teams is fine with me.  However, those who are in the playoff committee should be allowed to have any and all information that they want when working together to fill each spot.  Massey, coaches poll, TSN, listing of all teams records, conference total records, etc.

It's tough being on the bubble so instead follow my "simple" rating system says...win your games, win your conference and don't worry about a ratings system.

Z

[ysuguins4]

It's tough being on the bubble so instead follow my "simple" rating system says...win your games, win your conference and don't worry about a ratings system.

Sounds like a good system to me.

[penguinpower]

It's tough being on the bubble so instead follow my "simple" rating system says...win your games, win your conference and don't worry about a ratings system.

Sounds like a good system to me.

Easier said than done.

[GOpenZ]

It's tough being on the bubble so instead follow my "simple" rating system says...win your games, win your conference and don't worry about a ratings system.

Sounds like a good system to me.

Easier said than done.

Yes it is easier said than done...but it can be done.  I like that option much better than the current FBS setup where you win your conference (and if it's not the SEC) you make it to the Papa John's / gallerycityfurniture.com bowl.

Z

[IAA Fan]

Wining one of the last 3 is not enough. A win over ISU is a must to solidify 3rd-place. From there we need to win one more. Even a win over NDSU looks like a fluke if we lose to WIU, ILS and ISU. We already have to ask for grace because of WIU.

[Karl Hungus]

A men Double A. What a bummer.

[seanbryan3]

Quite frankly none of us know what it is going to take to make the playoffs this year.. One win can seal it, or maybe we need two. No one knows. Let's see what the kids do. I know personally there is a different mind set this year in the locker room. All of those rankings are bullsh**, and thats proven year in and year out when it comes to playoff selection time, unless you have been NDSU the past couple seasons and ranked #1 (because they truly were #1). One game at a time. Let's get by Illinois State first.

[seanbryan3]

It's tough being on the bubble so instead follow my "simple" rating system says...win your games, win your conference and don't worry about a ratings system.

Sounds like a good system to me.

Easier said than done.

Agreed, wish it was that easy. Friggin BUTLER was a playoff team last year.

[seanbryan3]

My two cents... UNTIL!! YSU has a schedule and/or a good body of work that warrants a playoff berth I'll start to b**** and complain like the rest of you. LAST YEARS YSU TEAM did not belong in the playoff's!! This year YSU has quality wins. Winning one of the last 3 game should/will get them in. Lose all 3 and they are out. Face it the MVFC is the red headed step child of 1FCS and the stupid bag they have as a comish has no pull to get the best teams from a strong conference in. This is why the AUTO-BID needs to stop and a selection process of taking the 16-24 best teams needs to happen even "IF" that means taking 10 teams from the same conference  The current system is politically driven kind of like pee-wee soccer "everybody gets a trophy"

Haha this gave me a laugh as the way you put it, couldn't agree anymore man.. Their selection process is straight trash, thats why I say we have no idea who the hell gets in, or how many more wins we need this year.