We can't just look at YSU or the MVFC ratings to understand playoff selection. A big issue affecting the MVFC is the possibility of two 3-way ties in two other conferences that could absorb at large spots. Big Sky may end up with E. Washington, Montana State, and Northern Arizona as cochamps. I realize lots of people on this board do not see Northern Arizona as a playoff caliber team, and they're probably right, but because of their conference's scheduling they are on track for 9-3 overall and conference cochamps, and it will be hard for the committee to ignore that. I see the committee taking all three in this scenario. Idaho St. could upset Montana State, but that would still leave a 3-way tie for first in the conference, now with Idaho St. as a cochamp, and then the added problem for the selection committee becomes what to do with 4th-place Montana State.
I don't see this as a big issue because the Big Sky usually gets multiple slots anyways, unless Big Sky ends up with four slots. The other conference really posing a problem is the MEAC, where Bethune-Cookman, N. Carolina A&T, and South Carolina St. might end up in a 3-way tie. SC St. is saying that the tiebreaker goes with them. However, that would mean leaving out Bethune-Cookman and N. Carolina A&T, both of which could end up with 10 wins overall. Although I think Bethune-Cookman is overrated, they are nationally ranked, and I find it hard to believe that the committee would allow them to sit at home in this situation. This means at least two of the three get in.
These scenarios, especially the MEAC one, affect spots available for YSU and SDSU. I see YSU and SDSU on the bubble with several other teams competing for the last three at large spots. The YSU claim is the strongest of the bunch, but I've got this feeling that once the 3rd MVFC team is selected (I'm assuming NDSU, Ill. St., and UNI), horse trading will begin. If the committee decides to take only one MEAC team, then as many as five spots open up for the bubble teams, and SDSU then has a strong claim along with YSU. (The committee will deny there is horse trading, but most of us suspect it happens in some form. This year the other conferences will say to MVFC, "You had only two teams in last year, and this year we are letting you have three, so you should be happy with this and let some other conferences get their 2nd and 3rd place teams in." This is why I am not confident that an 8-4 YSU team is in.)
Remember: YSU put itself in this situation. A win over WIU would not required YSU to rely on the good graces of the selection committee. As much as I would like to see YSU in the playoffs, I'll have no sympathy for W. if YSU is not selected.
