MVFC Playoff Outlook

[IAA Fan]

I agree that this talk is way too premature. Here is how I see it for a guarantee:

1. Win out (of course). It is not that impossible & players, staff and fans cannot think that a certain record from now until Thanksgiving is "okay". The only thing "okay" is 4-0.

2. This win over SDSU was almost a must-win, just to counter the loss at WIU.

3. MSU & SIU must win more games.

4. We need a convincing win this weekend.

5. A loss to ISU and we are out. They will have the same record, with better SOS and hold the tie-breaker.

6. ILS must defeat NDSU. This will readjust the conference and the national polls.

7. My biggest concern is keeping NDSU from winning their 4th national title. This team must lose football games ...I could really care less about the conference SOS and # of selections ...they are going to trend down, so no better time than the present. If the football gods told me that I must sacrifice my Guins going to the post-season in exchange for NDSU not going as well ...I would do it in a second.


In short, for YSU to go to the post-season, we must go 3-1. We must beat USD and ISU. Then if we cannot win both over NDSU and ILS ...we need to defeat the team that is in 1st-place. We must defeat one for those two. Root heavily against NDSU and UNI.

[ValleyTalk]

YSU already has 3 ranked wins this year. If they split the next 4 games, they will finish with at least 4 ranked wins on the resume during the year. Did YSU have a single ranked win last year? Perhaps SIU, but that is it. I still think the game at Illinois State is very winnable. We decimated ILSU last year and the two games out in Normal have come down to the 4th quarter each year. If we take care of business this week, I am already calling for the W at ILSU. Now, I am certainly no where near that confident about NDSU.

Furthermore, Duquesne continues to be a threat to win the NEC and St. Francis just beat the NEC's best team, Sacred Heart, which was ranked at the time.

[ysufan0505]

I agree, we need a big convincing win against USD this weekend like NDSU had. I also believe ISU is a winnable game, depending on if the defense shows up. 3-1, and you can book playoffs!

[YGUINSNO1]

I agree guinsters!  3- 1  we are in!  anything less we are out!

[SoupCity]

I'm not sure I agree with those who think 3-1 is a must.  First things first, SD and ISUb are MUST WINS PERIOD!!!! Both are home games and there will be no excuse for let downs to either one of them.  As for NDSU and ISUr, if either or both are close then I think YSU is in without question.  If both are blowouts, then I'm not sure YSU gets in.

I think both NDSU and ISUr are very beatable and this could be the year to handle them both.  But it all depends if YSU shows up for 4 quarters on all 3 sides of the ball.  They've played very well 3 of the last 4 weeks.  Now is the time to suck it up and finish this season out on a good note.

[penguinpower]

YSU already has 3 ranked wins this year. If they split the next 4 games, they will finish with at least 4 ranked wins on the resume during the year. Did YSU have a single ranked win last year? Perhaps SIU, but that is it. I still think the game at Illinois State is very winnable. We decimated ILSU last year and the two games out in Normal have come down to the 4th quarter each year. If we take care of business this week, I am already calling for the W at ILSU. Now, I am certainly no where near that confident about NDSU.

Furthermore, Duquesne continues to be a threat to win the NEC and St. Francis just beat the NEC's best team, Sacred Heart, which was ranked at the time.

The campaign has started and is now in full force. Conference loyalty kicks into full gear for the voters and committee members.   TSN voters are discounting the MVFC rankings for the uninformed.  SIU is out of the 25, Missouri State out too.  1 quality win for YSU which is the one at SDSU and they won't look as good after they get beat by the Bison next week.

Not saying I'm right but I've seen this before.  When I saw the TSN poll today I almost sent Viverito an email telling her to start running interference. There is long term  and short term memory loss going on with poll voters. 23-1. Can you say that 3 times?

[SoupCity]

Understood.  I guess I was hoping they would look more at when YSU beat those teams.  But I get your point.

[Penguin Nation]

Here is the scenario that I alluded to in the OP that worries me about finishing 8-4 / 5-3.

ISUb IMO likely will beat WIU and MO ST...and likely lose to SDSU.  If they beat YSU, than they also finish 8-4 / 5-3.....but would be selected over YSU.

An YSU win over ISUb would, in a perverse way, be a better win than beating undefeated NDSU or ISUr....assuming both don't occur.

If the selection committee limits the MVFC to two at-large invites ...more than the MVFC received last season......than YSU is out....even with an 8-4 record.

[SoupCity]

Nation, I totally agree with you on that.  I think ISUb is a MUST WIN!!!

[Lets_Talk]

I do not understand why anyone would be upset with SIU and MSU not being in the top 25 in the TSN Poll?
SIU(25th in Coaches Poll) is 5-4, has lost 3 games in a row, one 1 of their wins was against Taylor. The 4 D1 wins are EIU(3-5), SE Missouri(4-5), WIU(3-6) and South Dakota(2-6). Not exactly an impressive resume.

MSU is 4-4 and unranked in the Coaches Poll, not just TSN. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games, with the only win over South Dakota(2-6). The other 3 wins are Central Arkansas(5-4), Northwestern State(4-4) and North Dakota(3-5). Again, far from a sterling resume.

1-NDSU... 7-ISU... 11-YSU....18-SDSU...19-Indy State...22-UNI
UNI has 4 losses, while Indy State and SDSU have 3 losses, yet they are still in the Top 25
UNI's 4 wins are Northern Colorado(2-6), Tenn Tech(3-5), WIU(3-6) and South Dakota(2-6), yet somehow they are ranked #22
SDSU has a win over UW-Oshkosh, and then wins over Cal-Poly(5-3), UNI(4-4), MSU(4-4), and S Utah(2-7) and yet they are ranked 18th

The MVFC has 6 teams ranked in the TSN Poll, including 5 in the Top 20
CAA has 5 teams ranked, and William&Mary at 5-3 is the only team with more than 2 losses
Big Sky has 3 ranked teams
Southland 3 teams
OVC 2 ranked teams
MEAC 2 ranked teams
So Con 1 ranked team
Big South 1 ranked team
Ivy League 1 team
NEC 1 team..Bryant(6-1) is 25th


As for the OOC games, Illinois is 4-4/1-3, but did have a very good win this past weekend over Minnesota. I know YSU lost to Illinois, but the more games Illinois wins, the more that helps the SOS for non conference games.
*Duquesne is 5-3/1-1 and in 4th place in the 7 team NEC. 2 of the wins are against non FCS teams, which puts Duquesne at 3-3 against FCS schools.
*St Francis is 3-5/1-2. They had a nice win this past week over Sacred Heart(6-2), but their 2 other wins are over Clarion and Lynchburg
*Butler is 3-5/1-4, with wins over Wittenberg, Taylor and Stetson(3-5/1-3)

When it comes to beating ranked opponents, the only ranking that means anything is the final regular season rankings. Every year there are teams ranked early in the season that finish at .500 or worse. YSU is in good position to make the playoffs, provided they play like a playoff team in November. Go 4-0 or 3-1 in November, and YSU is a lock for the playoffs. Go 2-2, with the losses at ISU and NDSU, and YSU likely gets in as the 3rd team from the MVFC. Go 1-3 or 0-4, and no playoffs. As Tress used to say, "November is for contenders", and we will see over the next 4 weeks which teams are contenders, and which teams are pretenders.

[Penguin Nation]

One writer lists YSU as "looking good" for the playoffs, along with NDSU and ISUr.


http://m.newsadvance.com/sports/liberty_university/chris_lang_blog/fcs-playoff-watch-where-does-your-team-stand/article_ddf3dd94-604d-11e4-b995-001a4bcf6878.html?mode=jqm

"The Penguins need to beat South Dakota and get one win in their final three games (at Illinois State, vs. Indiana State, at North Dakota State) to feel really good."

[Penguin Nation]

After today's results:

Ticket punched:

NDSU   5-0 / 8-0

Likely in:

ISUr     4-1 / 7-1     (in even if loses to YSU next week..finishes with SD and WIU)
YSU      4-1 / 7-2     (ISUb is a must win game)


Possibly in:
SDSU    2-3 / 5-4    (beat ISUb next week and they are likely in)
ISUb     3-2 / 6-3    (has SDSU and WIU and YSU left....must beat either SDSU or YSU...assuming a WIU win)

Doubtful:

UNI     3-2 / 5-4       (live another day...but have NDSU next)
SIU     2-3 / 5-4         


Out:

MO St.  1-4 / 4-5
WIU      1-4 / 3-6
SD         0-5  /  2-7

[penguinpower]

I think UNI will beat the Bison.

[Spiderlegs]

UNI beats the Bison and we have the possibility that both YSU and UNI are 8-4.  It's at this point the weenie games start to haunt us. If I were on the selection committee, I'd then take UNI over YSU based on UNI's strong showing in two D-I games, and YSU makes the playoffs only if selection committee agrees to take 4 teams from the MVFC.  (The verdict is still out on that one.)  Best case scenario for YSU is either UNI loses to Bisons and/or YSU beats Illinois St. as well as Indiana St.

[Penguin Nation]

After today's results:

Ticket punched:

NDSU   5-1 / 9-1
ISUr     5-1 / 8-1

Likely in:

UNI  4-2 / 6-4  (back to back wins over ISUr and NDSU...que bueno!...SIU and MIzz ST wont stop em)

Possibly in:

YSU    4-2/7-3   (need one more win....its that simple)
SDSU  3-3 / 6-4  (should win out vs SIU and USD)
ISUb   3-3 / 6-4  (needs to win out)

Doubtful:
SIU     3-3 / 6-4   (hanging on a microscopic thread...finishes vs UNI and ISUr)

Out:

WIU  2-4 / 4-6
MO St  1-5 / 4-6
SD    0-6 / 2-8