DoubleE,
If you monitor the performance of other FCS conferences this season, you would conclude that the committee will actually be taking quite a few four loss teams this season. They will have no choice to fill out the 24 team field. Don't be shocked to see one or two 7-5 teams in the field with the right schedules (ex. a 7-5 UNI with their two FBS losses.)
Our problem is that Illinois State and Indiana State are better than Southern Illinois and Missouri State. We must beat one of them, preferably Indiana State at home. Even if we beat Illinois State, we probably won't finish ahead of them in the standings as they don't play North Dakota State.