Youngstown State @ Southern Illinois

[HappyPenguin]

I'm not sure I agree with them being weak on defense....but stats can mean anything right?

From here... http://www.siusalukis.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/092313aaf.html

- Southern Illinois leads the MVFC and is ninth in the nation in rushing defense, allowing 83.5 rushing yards per game.

- The Salukis held SEMO to 53 total rushing yards last week, including -3 rushing yards in the second half. The Salukis have held opponents to negative rushing yards in two halves in 2013 (first half at Illinois, second half vs. SEMO).

- Southern has held opponents to 50 or fewer rushing yards in four of its last six games dating back to 2012.
- SIU has recorded at least 10.0 TFL in two out of four games in 2013.
- In 11 of its last 14 games, Southern has posted at least 5.0 TFL.

- SIU is tied for first in the MVFC in sacks with 13 for a total loss of 107 yards.

[penguinpower]

Listened to Dale Lennon Radio Show to get a feel for this team and see what they think they can do against us.  This show is archived on-line and has free access (Lennon talks about YSU at the 1:02 mark): 

http://www.siusalukis.com/allaccess/ 

Key take aways:

1.  SIU is supposed to have a young OL but they have come together nicely.
2.  This is a "Statement" game for them because we are ranked, conference play, and they feel that they wan to show the conference that they have improved.
3.  Lennon said he "sees some things" that they will be able to do to our defense.  He specifically talked about or DL and secondary like we have issues there. 
4.  SIU feels that if they could have put 4 quarters together they could have won all of their games including the game against Illinois.
5.  They also said that they have a good feel for what thier strengths and weaknesses are this year because of the schedule they have played.

[IAA Fan]

I changed the poll so we can pick the margin of victory or defeat. Everyone can vote a second time.

I voted 14+. The reason why is that I do not see a close game here. If their defense shuts us down, SIU will win big. If not, the Guins will pile on points and crush King Tut and Company.

[penguinpower]

I changed the poll so we can pick the margin of victory or defeat. Everyone can vote a second time.

I voted 14+. The reason why is that I do not see a close game here. If their defense shuts us down, SIU will win big. If not, the Guins will pile on points and crush King Tut and Company.

I hope you are right, but our DL has not shown me anything.  I have big concerns.  Another key take away that I did not mention is they interviewed one of their OL and he said that they love to run the ball and that they were able to run easily against SE Missouri State.  We all know that SE MSU is a OVC team, but they dominated them.  I am concerned that they will be able to keep possession which will keep our offense off the field.  Damnit I hate having a substandard DL.  Is it coaching or athletes or defensive scheme?  The way I see it is they will challenge our secondary almost immediately.  If they get a lead they will then try to run the ball on us and play keep away.

The home team in the MVFC has an advantage, maybe not in this series, but historically.  Thus more concern.  I hope that there is a step change improvement in the play of the DL and I hope the secondary jumps routes and disrupts timing.  I am not worried about our LB's.

[paladin]

I expect a close win. SIU has played a Big 10  cellar dweller, a D-II, a poor OVC team and a home  loss  in double OT vs EIU, another OVC team. Why wouldn't they have good stats ?  I expect YSU to use a run game to control the clock and keep SIU in a long field. YSU by 3.

[Penguin Nation]

This is a bellwether game, with the winner potentially receiving a fourth MVFC invite to the postseason.  It is a road game with Massey giving YSU a 28% chance of winning.  Actually, Massey only predicts YSU to win three more games this season.  Most prediction on AGS in favor of SIU.  A loss here means YSU would have to have to beat someone besides USD in November.  I'll go with 48-42 YSU.  Both teams with suspect D.  Hess will outshoot the injured Faulkner.


Saluki message board:

http://www.salukination.net/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1059

[Wick250]

Did anybody notice these stats in the YSU game preview notes?  Under Eric Wolford, here is our record with the following defensive performances:

Giving up 20 points or fewer....11-0
Giving up 27 points or fewer....17-1
Giving up 33 points or fewer....18-2

What could we accomplish with just a better than average defense?  Will we every acquire that better than average defense under Wolford's tenure?

To repeat myself, this is the most important single game in Wolford's coaching career.  I am strangely confident that he can hold SIU under 30 points, assuming we don't give free points away with stupid turnovers.

[ItalianPenguin]

So. Illinois has opened as a 3 point favorite

[ValleyTalk]

I am looking forward to this game. I think our rushing offense will be able to run on them, despite their terrific stats for their rushing defense. This is no NDSU, this is a team that gives up points.

35, in my eyes, is the magic number.

[ysufan0505]

Ok I have my prediction. 31-28 YSU. Cejudo makes the game winning FG.

[penguinpower]

After thinking about this for a while, I think the key to this game on the players side is resiliancy. If we get behind in the game we need to demonstrate that we have the ability to come back and not fold. Since we are on the road in a hostile environment it is foreseeable that we could fall behind in the game. The team  needs to demonstrate that they aren't mentally beaten and that they come back and win or even hold a lead if they are in that position.

NDSU has demonstrated that they are capable of pulling off a "championship drive". We may need to demonstrate this in the game as well.

[ScarletRook]

After thinking about this for a while, I think the key to this game on the players side is resiliancy. If we get behind in the game we need to demonstrate that we have the ability to come back and not fold

I totally agree and I'm not sure the Duquense game gave the team the confidence or whatever is necessary to have resilliancy.  Saw that last year after North Dakota game and seemed to see the same look after the Michigan State game.

The Penguins remind me of Ohio State during the Cooper years. Talent was there, but when their back was to the wall instead of rallying behind each other they turned on each other and the result was an 'L'.


GO GUINS

[IAA Fan]

I agree with these points about the teams mental state; but to be honest, I do not want to see a close game here. SIU is not capable of winning their next three games (NDSU, SDSU and UNI). Probably not capable of winning a single one of them. Their October schedule is our November. I would like to think we are competitive with those three & can knock off at least one of them. I do not agree that NDSU is the top team this year ...it is SDSU. In fact, I think they will probably win it all. They have everything that NDSU has + the finesse that NDSU lacks. We simply need to lose no less than 2-more games. We need to finish in the top-3 & have to be above either (NDSU, SDSU, or UNI) with no tie.

[Dmorton]

Good game preview Power!  Spot On on how the game went!

[IAA Fan]

0505 deserves mention as well. Close on the points. The only difference was that Cejudo won it with the XP, instead of a FG.