Author Topic: Well, let's see where we stand  (Read 3688 times)

Offline IAA Fan

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Well, let's see where we stand
« on: November 18, 2023, 12:58:50 PM »
First note that aside from 2 games yesterday, this is BEFORE today's game. The 2023 championship field will consist of 10 automatic qualifiers, with another 14 at-large selections. To be one of those 14 (not 24) teams is what we are battling for. Bold means they are already in the play-ff in my opinions. However there are still today's game remaining to be played.

United Athletic Conference:: The first in our series of craziness. This is a merger of the ASUN and WAC. Last year they were combined for football-only, now it is an official single conference. This mean they conference will receive an auto-bid to the play-off and all teams can qualify for an at-large berth. Also, this is a very strong conference in terms of membership. Today Austin Peay and Central Arkansas will battle for the auto-berth. At this point, Both teams should be in, but because it is a new conference, it will be hard to justify a 7-4 Central Arkansas should they lose today.
1. Austin Peay
2. Central Arkansas


Big Sky: Always a power conference. should see as many bids as the MVFC. Again Montana vs. Montana State decides the autobid.  The game to watch is not Montana v MSU; rather it is Sacramento State vs UC-Davis. If Davis wins, this will be either a 3-deep, or 5-deep conference for 2023. Idaho's loss to Weber is an issue, but the Vandals will show their return to prominence in the FCS with a win over Idaho State today. Weber's hapless free-fall kisses UNI's post-season goodbye.
1. Montana = 9-1
2. Montana State = 8-2
3. Idaho = 7-3

4. Sacramento State = 7-3
5. OC-Davis = 6-4

Big South - Ohio Valley: Well what mess this is. Individually, The Big South and Ohio Valley no longer exist for football and will share on autobid. Gardner-Webb will earn the Big South-OVC quto-berth to the FCS Playoffs, and share the league title with UT Martin, with a win today over Charleston Southern. UT Martin is looking for one final strong showing to solidify the team's playoff résumé. While Gardner-Webb can secure the association's automatic playoff bid with a win against Charleston Southern, the Skyhawks (IMO) have built a stronger regular season portfolio for an at-large bid. If GW loses, I think they are out of the Play-off.
1. UT-Martin = 8-2
2. Gardner-Webb = 6-4

CAA: Believe it or not, Albany is playing fantastic football and looking to win it's first-ever Colonial football crown. As of today UAlbany, Delaware, Richmond and Villanova are tied for first place in the conference. Right now the tie-breakers are still two numerous for me to care. I am just happy for Albany. The CAA is very much like the MVFC (including the Guins) is that two other teams are hovering at that 4-loss mark, with FBS losses (URI and W&M).
1. Delaware = 8-2
2. Villanova = 8-2
3. UAlbany = 8-3
4. Richmond = 7-3


MVFC: I know we have talked about this relentlessly, but I thght that up again other conferences, there might be a better perspective SDSU clearly has the conference crown an auto-berth to the play-off. Again this is as of today with a Saturday of action remaining.
1. SDSU = 10-0 ... IN
2. South Dakota = 8-2 ... IN
3. NDSU = 7-3 ... NDSU has a daunting task ahead today.  If they defeat UNI, the Panthers are out.

4. UNI = 6-4  ... as mentioned above, the A Panthers are in a must-win situation. If they do win, strong wins vs. NDSU, YSU and UND look nice for the committee.
5. ILS = 6-4 ... A must-win today again North Dakota. However losses at YSU, UNI and Eastern Illinois (EIU likely out of the play-off this year). are huge detractors
6 North Dakota = 6-4 ... UND has a solid resume, but today is a must-win against ILS. Wins at NDSU is trong, but losses to UNI and S Dakota are detractors
7. YSU = 6-4 ... Well plenty of talk here about this already. In short, Solid wins at SIU and ILS are countered by losses at SDSU, UNI and S. Dakota.
8. SIU = 6-4 ... the biggest detractor for SIU is a losing record in the conference. A win today over ISU-blue makes it an even 4-4 & I just don't see any playoff for this team. But a huge win over  MAC (FBS) power Northern Illinois. Combine that with a great performance and OT loss to SDSU Also a big win over UAC champ and play-off selection Austin Peay is such an impressive resume.

NEC: Duquesne University football team travels to Merrimack College today for its final regular season game of the year. The winner of the game will earn the Northeast Conference's automatic bid to the NCAA Division I FCS Championship. With a loss, neither club has 7 d-I wins on the season, so this is a one-bid conference.
1. Duquesne = 6-4
2. Merrimack = 5-5

Patriot: Four teams can earn a share of the 2023 Patriot League football title, but just Lafayette and Holy Cross could claim the League’s automatic bid to the NCAA DI FCS Football Championship. Lafayette can claim at least a share of the League title and its first auto bid since 2013 by defeating Lehigh. Holy Cross would need a victory vs. Georgetown in their regular-season finale and a Leopards’ loss vs. the Mountain Hawks guarantee a return to the playoffs for the fifth straight season. Losses by Lafayette and Holy Cross would allow Georgetown to clinch a share of the Patriot League title for the first time in program history, creating the first tri-champion situation in League history. In that scenario, Colgate could also create the first quad-champion situation in League history by defeating Fordham
1. Lafayette = 8-2
2. Holy Cross = 6-4

Pioneer: Drake clinched a share of the 2023 PFL title last week with its 16-14 victory against Presbyterian and Davidson’s loss at Morehead State. Drake can clinch the PFL Championship outright and claim the league’s AQ spot in the FCS Playoffs with a win this weekend at Butler. Although St. Thomas is also 7-3, they are too new to FCS to qualify for the playoff.
Drake = 7-3
Davidson = 7-3
Butler = 7-3

SoCon: : Not to show me just how old I am, Furman clinched it's first outright SoCon title in 33 years. Other team are deserving of a spot, but I do not see it.Chattanooga has losses to all three other teams in contention.
1. Furman = 9-1 ... IN
2. Chattanooga = 7-3
3. Mercer = 8-3
4. W. Carolina = 7-3

Southland: Nicholls won the Southland Football title. Incarnate Word should make the post-season if they defeat HCU today.
1. Nicholls St.
2 Incarnate Word








« Last Edit: November 18, 2023, 01:00:39 PM by IAA Fan »

Offline YsuPride

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Re: Well, let's see where we stand
« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2023, 01:13:50 PM »
We need some help then if we want to be in the playoffs.  I just don' t see it the committee hates us.

Offline IAA Fan

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Re: Well, let's see where we stand
« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2023, 01:28:53 PM »
you know I forgot that the MEAC is no longer in the bowl game, so they will have 2 invites.

Offline guinpen

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Re: Well, let's see where we stand
« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2023, 01:34:05 PM »
Nice post Fan
“Life is hard, it’s harder if you're stupid” - John Wayne

Offline IAA Fan

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Re: Well, let's see where we stand
« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2023, 08:22:52 AM »
odd I have one article conflicting with another. Yesterday I saw ads for the MEAC VS SWAC that mentioned the teams so it was brand new. I am not sure that the MEAC will get any bids to the play-off. This is great news for us!

Offline IAA Fan

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Re: Well, let's see where we stand
« Reply #5 on: November 19, 2023, 09:15:05 AM »
odd I have one article conflicting with another. Yesterday I saw ads for the MEAC VS SWAC that mentioned the teams so it was brand new. I am not sure that the MEAC will get any bids to the play-off. This is great news for us!

I just saw an interview and article. NC Central says it will accept and offer and feels it's 9-win season is play-off worthy. IMO, So will the committee.

https://hbcusports.com/2023/11/19/nc-central-says-its-a-playoff-worthy-team-after-9-win-season-2/

Look a the #1 article on the HBCU site, it is about the best halftime shows. Just goes to show you their priority

Offline IAA Fan

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Re: Well, let's see where we stand
« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2023, 09:40:52 AM »
I am not sure where the NCAA goes to find columnists. I guest that is what we get for following an FCS team. I don't know who writes the list, but a huge amount of bias in the article. He spends more times defending his "outs", than his "ins". I mean what is the difference between "bubble but out" and "first teams out"? Also,  if a team is "definitely out" then why mention them at all?  :)   Also, since the author does not think it is important to mention, perhaps we should mention the letters? Also next time mention the conferences and totals. Although, to be fair, they used to spend more time talking about the IA/FBS teams each played, so this is much improved.
UIW = University of Incarnate Word
UT Martin = University of Tennessee - Martin
UC Davis = University of California Davis


Locks
UAlbany
Delaware
Idaho
Mercer
Montana State
North Carolina Central
North Dakota State
Richmond
South Dakota
UIW
 
Bubble but in
North Dakota
Sacramento State
Southern Illinois
UT Martin

First teams out
Chattanooga
UC Davis
Western Carolina
Youngstown State

Bubble but out
Eastern Illinois


Definitely out

Holy Cross


https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-11-18/predicting-every-large-selection-2023-fcs-playoffs
« Last Edit: November 19, 2023, 10:05:38 AM by IAA Fan »

Offline The YO Show

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Re: Well, let's see where we stand
« Reply #7 on: November 19, 2023, 11:29:11 AM »
Let me clarify this for you IAA, NCCU didn't win the MEAC, despite their record, because they lost to Howard. So Howard is the MEAC representative to the Celebration bowl. If Howard would have lost to Morgan State yesterday, since NCCU did win, they would have ended up winning the MEAC and then wouldn't get an at large. MEAC vs SWAC is still a bowl game, NCCU just didn't win the MEAC so they will take an at large. My projection for the field is more like this (and I think YSU makes it in):

1   South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2   Montana Grizzlies
3   South Dakota Coyotes
4   Villanova Wildcats
5   Albany Great Danes
6   Idaho  Vandals
7   Furman Paladins
8   North Dakota State Bison
9   Montana State Bobcats
10   Austin Peay
11   Delaware Fightin Blue Hens
12   Richmond Spiders
13   Mercer Bears
14   North Dakota Fighting Hawks
15   Incarnate Word Cardinals
16   Southern Illinois Salukis
17   Youngstown State Penguins
18   North Carolina Central Eagles
19   Gardner Webb
20   Nicholls
21   Drake
22   Lafayette Leopards
23   UT Martin
24   UC Davis
25   Sac State

Sac State being 25 means they are the first one out...

Offline The YO Show

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Re: Well, let's see where we stand
« Reply #8 on: November 19, 2023, 11:31:57 AM »
If that columnist is right and Sac State gets in over UC Davis, or SIU gets in and YSU gets left out, I swear I will have a meltdown

Offline IAA Fan

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Re: Well, let's see where we stand
« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2023, 11:40:24 AM »
Nice list, we will know in an hour

Offline IAA Fan

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Re: Well, let's see where we stand
« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2023, 11:43:28 AM »
If that columnist is right and Sac State gets in over UC Davis, or SIU gets in and YSU gets left out, I swear I will have a meltdown

Yes it is almost as if we were better off winning (over SIU) by a close margin so no one can call it a "fluke". But to be fair, SIU has some impressive wins, more so than ours. However, that head-to-head is hard to ignore.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2023, 11:45:10 AM by IAA Fan »

Offline Dmorton

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Re: Well, let's see where we stand
« Reply #11 on: November 19, 2023, 12:14:25 PM »
The committee would do that just to spite us!  They have screwed us 3 or four times in the past!  What makes you think they will not do it again? 

Offline IAA Fan

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Re: Well, let's see where we stand
« Reply #12 on: November 19, 2023, 12:24:42 PM »
I don't know, there were a couple of years our reputation got us in back in the 90's. So we cannot complain. I do not have ESPNU, so anyone that does go ahead and announce as they are announced.

Offline IAA Fan

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Re: Well, let's see where we stand
« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2023, 12:45:04 PM »
Top 8-seeds:

South Dakota State
Montana
South Dakota
Idaho
UAlbany
Montana State
Furman
Villanova