Picks YSU for third. We linked to the site many times last year. Needs to be a must follow for any YSU hoops fan.
http://horizonleaguehoops.com/2012/11/05/tempo-free-countdown-no-3-youngstown-state/I’m ranking and previewing the nine teams of the Horizon League leading up to the start of the 2012-2013 season. Rankings are based on a host of tempo-free and other factors. I invite your take in the comments section below.
Last season: Youngstown State shook off the cobwebs after years toiling in the Horizon League’s cellar with their most wins in over 10 seasons. Their 64-61 upset over league-favorite Detroit in December made a lot of people start paying attention, despite an obvious lack of depth in both their front and backcourt. That set the pace for a streaky but energizing 16-15 year.
YSU ended up with a 10-8 conference record that included a sweep of Green Bay, a win over eventual regular season champ Valparaiso and a tie for sixth place in the league standings. It was their winningest conference season since joining the Horizon League.
The Penguins ranked third in offensive efficiency (1.037 points scored per possession) among Horizon League teams last season, and eighth in defensive efficiency (1.013).
This season: The Penguins want to keep that momentum, and they will have a lot working in their favor. Their three most efficient starters, including last season’s All-Horizon League first team selection Kendrick Perry, return. Further, as Slocum assured reporters at the Horizon League media day, YSU’s newcomers will provide immediate big-play talent that will fill the gaps left by two departing starters — and then some.
Perry, and the other returning starters, Damian Eargle and Blake Allen, all worked on their game in the offseason by playing in the Pittsburgh Pro-Am club league.
Coach: Jerry Slocum (74-136), now in his seventh season at the YSU helm, is tied with Milwaukee coach Rob Jeter for the longest active Horizon League head coaching tenure. Last season was his only winning season, and it might have saved his job. At least one writer listed Slocum as on the hot seat.
Slocum has been an unusually outspoken supporter of his team this offseason.
Returning minutes: 64.72% (3rd) Returning possessions: 65.56% (4th) Returning scoring: 67.06% (3rd)
Returning starters: 3
Key returners:
1. Kendrick Perry (31 games last season/31 starts last season/1.18 points per possession last season) - Perry, who was selected to the All-League First Team by media both after last season and before this season, returns as YSU’s most efficient player and his third season starting at point guard. He’ll compete with Detroit’s Ray McCallum Jr. as the best PG in a guard-driven league.
How? Just look at his tempo-free metrics. Perry’s top-ranked assist to turnover ratio (1.9), second-ranked steal rate (4.21 percent), fifth-ranked assist rate (25.9 percent), sixth-ranked turnover rate (14.4 percent), fourth-ranked fouls committed per 40 minutes (2.1) and fifth-ranked offensive rating (114.4) among all Horizon League players last season all rank better than McCallum Jr.
Despite being the youngest starter on the floor for the Penguins last season, Perry played more minutes (86.3 percent), got more possessions when he was on the floor (25.3 percent) and took more shots when he was on the floor (24.6 percent) than any of his teammates.
One other thing: Lights out shooting. Perry shot 57.2 percent from inside the arc, and 35.5 percent from outside the arc last season.
With some team success under his belt, people might finally start giving Perry the attention he deserves. He should easily by in the conversation for the Horizon League’s best guard.
2. Blake Allen (31/31/1.21) - Whereas Perry is an efficient scorer, setup man and defender, Allen specializes as an even more effective scorer. In fact, he’s the second-most efficient scorer among returning Horizon League guards with 1.21 points per possession, and he’s a cartoonishly good shot.
The starting two-guard launched more three-pointers (212) last season than any player in the Horizon League and knocked them down at a 42.9 percent clip that ranked second. Three-pointers accounted for 68.7 percent of Allen’s points last season, a number that topped the Horizon and ranked 23rd in the nation.
This is his third season as a full-time starter for the 6-1 Florida native.
3. Damian Eargle (31/31/0.96) - What Eargle lacks in size, he makes up for in raw defensive talent. The undersized 6-7 post player returns as YSU’s efficient frontcourt leader for his third season as a full-time starter and was selected to the All-Horizon Preseason Second Team.
Only two players have blocked shots at a higher rate than Eargle since Ken Pomeroy started keeping track in 2005 (they’re Scott VanderMeer and LaMarcus Lowe if you’re curious), and he led the league last season with a shot blocked in 12.81 percent of his chances. The number two and three players on that list from last season are 6-11 and 7-1 respectively.
Eargle also returns as the Penguins board-crashing leader on both ends, and he’s undervalued for his efficiency in the offensive low post.
Key losses:
1. Ashen Ward (31/31) - Ward started the last two seasons in Slocum’s frontcourt, and developed into a pretty efficient piece of the offense. However, the 6-3 wing/small forward wasn’t a lights-out shooter or a high-percentage rebounder so he won’t be difficult to replace.
2. DuShawn Brooks (31/31) - Last season Brooks stepped in to take over for the departed Vytas Sulskis, but didn’t really even compare to one of the best frontcourt pieces YSU has seen over the last few seasons. You can’t fault Brooks for much, but he lived in the shadow of Eargle on the boards and in the paint. Still, Brooks’ 42 percent 3-pt. percentage will be missed.
3. Nate Perry (25/0) - The sophomore guard played behind Perry and didn’t get many minutes. Perry’s shooting stroke wasn’t looked highly upon, and he took his talents to D-II Seton Hill in the offseason.
Key newcomers:
1. Ronnye Beamon (6-4, 195, freshman) - It’s a sign of how much noise Slocum’s team is starting to make that Beamon passed over offers from Valparaiso, Cleveland State, Lehigh, Evansville, Indiana State and a few others when he chose YSU.
Beamon ‘s solid shooting stroke from an anywhere on the floor should mean he’ll be a versatile wing or two-guard. He’ll get significant minutes as a freshman even if he doesn’t start in Ward’s vacated spot. I’m guessing that figured highly into his commitment.
2. Kamren Belin (6-7, 225, junior) - A JUCO transfer from Crowley College in Kansas, Belin passed on offers from UMKC, North Dakota and Sam Houston State. Belin — in the image of Eargle — plays bigger than his frame. He was recruited as a shot blocker and board crasher that even boasts an above average perimeter shooting stroke.
Belin and Bobby Hain should battle for the hole where DuShawn Brooks was in the starting lineup along with junior Josh Chojnacki and sophomore Fletcher Larson.
3. Bobby Hain (6-10, 235, freshman) - Hain come to YSU from Florida, and Slocum has said he has “unlimited potential.” He’s athletic, agile, and will be needed for some big minutes in his freshman year.
Marquee matchups (full schedule here):
1. At Georgia (81st in Pomeroy’s preseason rankings) on Nov. 12 - This game is part of the Progressive Legends Classic and will be broadcast live on ESPNU and ESPN3. I can’t find another instance of a Youngstown State matchup with an SEC opponent from the regular season, so this game could have some historical implications.
The Bulldogs return four starters from their 15-17 team, but have been criticized for a serious lack of depth. Maybe the ‘Guins make a late run to upset the Bulldogs at home. I can dream.
2. At South Florida (76th) on Dec. 18 - The Bulls were competitive and featured top-to-bottom depth last season, but have since lost three starters. This one might come down to defense. USF had the 13th-most efficient defense in basketball last season, only allowing opponents an adjusted 0.889 points per possession.
Relevant: South Florida takes on Georgia in the SEC-Big East challenge on Nov. 30. YSU will be watching, and the transitive property of non-conference basketball is on the line.
3. At Duquesne (157th) on Nov. 21 - The Penguins have lost their last three games against Duquesne — in 2002, 2005 and 2007. This shot at revenge closes out the Progressive Legends classic, and it should be a pretty even matchup.
Duquesne lost three starters and their head coach after their 16-15 season near the middle of the A-10.
Three positives:
1. Depth. Finally. The Penguins ranked dead last among all Division-I teams in bench minutes last season (15.4 percent). That changes with some more experienced frontcourt bench players, and a solid recruiting class. Perry, Eargle and Allen won’t have to shoulder all the load.
2. Experience. Only maybe Valparaiso returns a more experienced corpse of starters. Slocum, Perry, Eargle and Allen know the league and their opponents, what works and what doesn’t, and they trust each other. YSU hasn’t had that kind of experience since I don’t know when.
3. Backcourt. With Cleveland State’s back court dismantled, I don’t think there’s a backcourt anywhere in the Horizon League that stacks up to the dynamic duo of Perry and Allen. Their court vision, their perimeter shooting stroke and their defensive mentality just are unmatched.
Three negatives:
1. Rebounding. Slocum will have to figure out the Chojnacki-Larson-Hain-Eargle-Belin rotation in a way that improves how his team rebounds. YSU finished eighth in both grabbing and defending offensive rebounds last season, but remained efficient because of solid passing and shooting. With more boards this offense comes together.
2. Scheduling. The Penguins will be traveling for six of their first eight games of the season, and only have two non-conference games at home against Division-I competition. That would be okay if the schedule was filled with high-major statement games, but it’s not.
YSU needs these wins over middling teams like James Madison, George Washington, Duquesne, North Dakota State and Bowling Green to remain respected around the league coming into conference play, but they won’t come as easily on the road.
3. Target. Where the Penguins were normally seen by league and non-conference foes as a team not worth preparing for, success has made YSU a target. Their opponents will be prepared, and it’s going to make things tougher on the ‘Guins.
Conclusion:
I know, it sounds crazy: Youngstown State at No. 3. People thought the same thing when preseason voters chose them at an all-time best No. 4, and that bias may well have some real value. The Penguins have been languishing in the cellars of the Horizon League for years, so why this team? Why now? What’s changed?
Is it that Slocum is feeling some pressure to perform? Is is that team chemistry just has come along at a fortunate pace that has Eargle, Perry and Blake all peaking at once? Is it that their marginal success last season earned them an edge with recruits that want to help? It’s likely some combination of those.
Whatever the reason, YSU’s underdog storyline is hard not to get swept up in, but I don’t think I was. They earned this.
Youngstown State’s starters have a combined nine seasons of experience as full-time starters, and all three are among the most efficient in the league. Horizon League teams have real reasons to fear this underdog team that is cutting its teeth on success.
