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YSU Penguin Athletics => YSU Penguin Athletics => Topic started by: ValleyTalk on September 22, 2013, 12:50:06 PM
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Youngstown State @
Southern Illinois
7:00pm/et
WCBC - LIVE
570 WKBN
As I stated on another thread, I feel these next two road games to open up conference play are the two most important games in the Wolford tenure. They are each very winnable and if we want to be a playoff team come November, these are two games we can ill-afford to lose.
It will once again come down to our defense, more specifically our shaky pass defense that has been torn apart the past two weeks. The defense has been bringing less pressure, yet still can't cover a simple slant pattern or pass to the sidelines. Granted, we had four defensive starters out yesterday with injuries, but after 4 years, that is no excuse for Coach Wolford and the staff.
I believe we will be able to shut down their rushing attack, but can we force 1-2 turnovers, specifically interceptions out of Faulkner's hands to take this one on the road?
I glanced at the SIU forum and they are in a similar state of uncertainty as they are unsure as to how their program stacks up against the top tier of our conference.
Last year, the SIU game single-handedly was one of the biggest implosions we've seen at Stambaugh Stadium in years. Kurt Hess had a game that was far worse than the debacle at NDSU, as he turned it over 4 times in the 2nd half as we lost to the Saluki's. That blocked punt that went for a touchdown for SIU was the main dagger in that meltdown. Can Kurt Hess and this team regroup and take one in Carbondale?
Will be very interesting to see. Glad we can watch it live on WBCB.
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Huge huge game
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The fans at Carbondale are truly great hosts. Will miss being there this year.
Hopefully we come home with a win. Road warriors, cheer for me. I'll be
missing you.
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Well this is going to be the first real test of where we are. I hear they have an excellent offense. I hope the DL practices getting off their blocks and getting some pressure during practice this week.
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I don't have a real feel for this game. At this point, YSU is where I thought they would be. But my pre-season concern nags at me -- the OL isn't that good and the DL has problems too. That's the weak spots. Add in no depth at QB. We have tons of skill players, more DBs, lots of RBs , plenty of LBs and good kickers. YSU should continue to score but just not as much against against a tougher schedule vs what has been a very weak schedule early on. And I'm afraid that the D won't stop the run nor the pass as the pass rush is poor and if the DL isn't healthy, won't stop the run either. The crap shoot begins.
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Why can't we get the players we need in the trenches? Is it that we are young or is it that we don't have the people. I listened to Hannon on the show last week and he interviewed Bricillo (Spelling?) and he said that he was deep on the OL.
If they are deep is it that they are too young? Why can't we get kids on the DL?
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Combo of both on the OL. Elkins is the standout. Sinko is competent. Eisenhuth is young and shows promise. The left side is the crap shoot. I don't see a left tackle and we are weak at LG. Depth ? lol. I wanna drink what he's having, lol. There are maybe two young guys that might work out in a couple of years. The ability level is down from last year.
I see no depth on the DL and questions on the front 4 who show no real pass rushing strength. And we'll see if they can stop the run. Dayton, Morehead and the Dukes were no match, but then they aren't really FCS caliber.
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Yes, so stats to consider:
In total offense, they are #4 in the MVFC ...31st nationally. They are behind YSU (23), SDSU (26) and NDSU (27). They run a lot of plays (306 avg per game) which is #2 nationally & #1 in the MVFC.
They are #1 in the conference is most every team passing stat. #24 nationally. However, they are very poor when it comes to efficiency, so they must run a lot of pattern plays.
Rushing they are #5 in the conference.
On defense, they are about as weak as we are ...neither of us in the top-50 & at the bottom of the MVFC. However, they are #1 in the conference against the run & have been averaging almost 4-sacks-per-game and lead the conference in TTFL.
They protect they protect the QB well ,,,#1 in the conference & #15 nationally. Despite this, they are only averaging about 42 more yards per game passing over the guins. They throw a lot of short-to-medium routes.
Faulkner completes almost twice as many passes-per-game as Hess.
They do have big play potential, but lack a power run game.
The top players to watch:
Receivers: Lance, Pruitt and McKinney.
Rushers: Malcom Agnew
Tacklers: Bryan Presume is a stud. Perhaps the best in the conference
McKinney is explosive on returns.
They average 10 PPG off of field goals.
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You know it is getting pretty bad on here when we all agree.
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Lots of people on gas board picking the home team. Hard not to argue with that based on the inconsistent play we have demonstrated. This will be a interesting game. Let's hope all of our healthy starters are back in the line up and the dl is ready to play.
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On a thread that did not take off for some reason, ValleyTalk called the next two games the biggest in Wolford's tenure. I agree. Southern Illinois and Indiana State will finish in the middle of the pack (regardless of how they fare against us.) We did not pump all that money into coaching salaries and facilities to stay down there with this bunch. Should we lose, Wolford effectively becomes a lame duck with one year plus left in his stewardship. How will Wolford and his staff respond to this pressure? Who knows?
The good thing is that Southern Illinois lost most of their strong defense from last season. We all remember the turnovers (5) and the blocked punt. If our o-line and d-line can just match their adversaries, we should be ok. SIU has impressive offensive stats but, like us, gained them against weak opposition. Eastern Illinois has a prolific offense, but they play no defense. SIU did score 34 against Illinois in the opener, but Illinois was ahead 39-17 late in the third quarter. Did they let down or is SIU that explosive? I expect the former. Road games are always difficult, but if we avoid turnovers and get our multiple skilled athletes the ball in space, we should prevail. For the sake of Wolford, the university, the community, and all of us, we better prevail. I don't want to relive the final two Heacock years.
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Apparently everyone and their brother missed my thread from yesterday. Please merge the two IAAFAN:
http://ysupenguins.com/forum/index.php/topic,8391.0.html
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The defense has not shown me that we are capable of winning in Carbondale. Dale Lennon is on the hot seat and they are at home. I feel that the only chance we have is good coverage and big plays by our secondary. If our DL cannot get pressure with 4 down (playing straight) I would coach the DB's to take pass interference penalties over allowing big receptions. That way we force their offense to work harder to get into the end zone, and maybe we coould even get a few picks off of the extra plays.
I would also have my DB's hit the receivers when the ball is snapped to prevent timing routs from connecting.
Man I wish we had a DL that could be disruptive with 3 guys like in the old days. It would make it so much easier on our LB's and DB's. They could look like superstars.
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I honestly can't say we're gonna win but whatever the result is, it will have a big impact on the rest of the season.
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This is the game that cost us the playoffs last year. We handed them the win with the turnovers and blocked punt. The team won't forget that, and will come out ready to play. YSU 31 - 27.
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I'm not sure I agree with them being weak on defense....but stats can mean anything right?
From here... http://www.siusalukis.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/092313aaf.html
- Southern Illinois leads the MVFC and is ninth in the nation in rushing defense, allowing 83.5 rushing yards per game.
- The Salukis held SEMO to 53 total rushing yards last week, including -3 rushing yards in the second half. The Salukis have held opponents to negative rushing yards in two halves in 2013 (first half at Illinois, second half vs. SEMO).
- Southern has held opponents to 50 or fewer rushing yards in four of its last six games dating back to 2012.
- SIU has recorded at least 10.0 TFL in two out of four games in 2013.
- In 11 of its last 14 games, Southern has posted at least 5.0 TFL.
- SIU is tied for first in the MVFC in sacks with 13 for a total loss of 107 yards.
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Listened to Dale Lennon Radio Show to get a feel for this team and see what they think they can do against us. This show is archived on-line and has free access (Lennon talks about YSU at the 1:02 mark):
http://www.siusalukis.com/allaccess/
Key take aways:
1. SIU is supposed to have a young OL but they have come together nicely.
2. This is a "Statement" game for them because we are ranked, conference play, and they feel that they wan to show the conference that they have improved.
3. Lennon said he "sees some things" that they will be able to do to our defense. He specifically talked about or DL and secondary like we have issues there.
4. SIU feels that if they could have put 4 quarters together they could have won all of their games including the game against Illinois.
5. They also said that they have a good feel for what thier strengths and weaknesses are this year because of the schedule they have played.
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I changed the poll so we can pick the margin of victory or defeat. Everyone can vote a second time.
I voted 14+. The reason why is that I do not see a close game here. If their defense shuts us down, SIU will win big. If not, the Guins will pile on points and crush King Tut and Company.
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I changed the poll so we can pick the margin of victory or defeat. Everyone can vote a second time.
I voted 14+. The reason why is that I do not see a close game here. If their defense shuts us down, SIU will win big. If not, the Guins will pile on points and crush King Tut and Company.
I hope you are right, but our DL has not shown me anything. I have big concerns. Another key take away that I did not mention is they interviewed one of their OL and he said that they love to run the ball and that they were able to run easily against SE Missouri State. We all know that SE MSU is a OVC team, but they dominated them. I am concerned that they will be able to keep possession which will keep our offense off the field. Damnit I hate having a substandard DL. Is it coaching or athletes or defensive scheme? The way I see it is they will challenge our secondary almost immediately. If they get a lead they will then try to run the ball on us and play keep away.
The home team in the MVFC has an advantage, maybe not in this series, but historically. Thus more concern. I hope that there is a step change improvement in the play of the DL and I hope the secondary jumps routes and disrupts timing. I am not worried about our LB's.
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I expect a close win. SIU has played a Big 10 cellar dweller, a D-II, a poor OVC team and a home loss in double OT vs EIU, another OVC team. Why wouldn't they have good stats ? I expect YSU to use a run game to control the clock and keep SIU in a long field. YSU by 3.
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This is a bellwether game, with the winner potentially receiving a fourth MVFC invite to the postseason. It is a road game with Massey giving YSU a 28% chance of winning. Actually, Massey only predicts YSU to win three more games this season. Most prediction on AGS in favor of SIU. A loss here means YSU would have to have to beat someone besides USD in November. I'll go with 48-42 YSU. Both teams with suspect D. Hess will outshoot the injured Faulkner.
Saluki message board:
http://www.salukination.net/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1059
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Did anybody notice these stats in the YSU game preview notes? Under Eric Wolford, here is our record with the following defensive performances:
Giving up 20 points or fewer....11-0
Giving up 27 points or fewer....17-1
Giving up 33 points or fewer....18-2
What could we accomplish with just a better than average defense? Will we every acquire that better than average defense under Wolford's tenure?
To repeat myself, this is the most important single game in Wolford's coaching career. I am strangely confident that he can hold SIU under 30 points, assuming we don't give free points away with stupid turnovers.
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So. Illinois has opened as a 3 point favorite
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I am looking forward to this game. I think our rushing offense will be able to run on them, despite their terrific stats for their rushing defense. This is no NDSU, this is a team that gives up points.
35, in my eyes, is the magic number.
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Ok I have my prediction. 31-28 YSU. Cejudo makes the game winning FG.
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After thinking about this for a while, I think the key to this game on the players side is resiliancy. If we get behind in the game we need to demonstrate that we have the ability to come back and not fold. Since we are on the road in a hostile environment it is foreseeable that we could fall behind in the game. The team needs to demonstrate that they aren't mentally beaten and that they come back and win or even hold a lead if they are in that position.
NDSU has demonstrated that they are capable of pulling off a "championship drive". We may need to demonstrate this in the game as well.
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After thinking about this for a while, I think the key to this game on the players side is resiliancy. If we get behind in the game we need to demonstrate that we have the ability to come back and not fold
I totally agree and I'm not sure the Duquense game gave the team the confidence or whatever is necessary to have resilliancy. Saw that last year after North Dakota game and seemed to see the same look after the Michigan State game.
The Penguins remind me of Ohio State during the Cooper years. Talent was there, but when their back was to the wall instead of rallying behind each other they turned on each other and the result was an 'L'.
GO GUINS
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I agree with these points about the teams mental state; but to be honest, I do not want to see a close game here. SIU is not capable of winning their next three games (NDSU, SDSU and UNI). Probably not capable of winning a single one of them. Their October schedule is our November. I would like to think we are competitive with those three & can knock off at least one of them. I do not agree that NDSU is the top team this year ...it is SDSU. In fact, I think they will probably win it all. They have everything that NDSU has + the finesse that NDSU lacks. We simply need to lose no less than 2-more games. We need to finish in the top-3 & have to be above either (NDSU, SDSU, or UNI) with no tie.
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Good game preview Power! Spot On on how the game went!
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0505 deserves mention as well. Close on the points. The only difference was that Cejudo won it with the XP, instead of a FG.
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0505 deserves mention as well. Close on the points. The only difference was that Cejudo won it with the XP, instead of a FG.
I'm just glad we won lol