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MVFC Playoff Outlook

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penguinpower:

--- Quote from: ValleyTalk on October 27, 2014, 04:21:41 PM ---YSU already has 3 ranked wins this year. If they split the next 4 games, they will finish with at least 4 ranked wins on the resume during the year. Did YSU have a single ranked win last year? Perhaps SIU, but that is it. I still think the game at Illinois State is very winnable. We decimated ILSU last year and the two games out in Normal have come down to the 4th quarter each year. If we take care of business this week, I am already calling for the W at ILSU. Now, I am certainly no where near that confident about NDSU.

Furthermore, Duquesne continues to be a threat to win the NEC and St. Francis just beat the NEC's best team, Sacred Heart, which was ranked at the time.

--- End quote ---

The campaign has started and is now in full force. Conference loyalty kicks into full gear for the voters and committee members.   TSN voters are discounting the MVFC rankings for the uninformed.  SIU is out of the 25, Missouri State out too.  1 quality win for YSU which is the one at SDSU and they won't look as good after they get beat by the Bison next week.

Not saying I'm right but I've seen this before.  When I saw the TSN poll today I almost sent Viverito an email telling her to start running interference. There is long term  and short term memory loss going on with poll voters. 23-1. Can you say that 3 times?

SoupCity:
Understood.  I guess I was hoping they would look more at when YSU beat those teams.  But I get your point.

Penguin Nation:
Here is the scenario that I alluded to in the OP that worries me about finishing 8-4 / 5-3.

ISUb IMO likely will beat WIU and MO ST...and likely lose to SDSU.  If they beat YSU, than they also finish 8-4 / 5-3.....but would be selected over YSU.

An YSU win over ISUb would, in a perverse way, be a better win than beating undefeated NDSU or ISUr....assuming both don't occur.

If the selection committee limits the MVFC to two at-large invites ...more than the MVFC received last season......than YSU is out....even with an 8-4 record.

SoupCity:
Nation, I totally agree with you on that.  I think ISUb is a MUST WIN!!!

Lets_Talk:
I do not understand why anyone would be upset with SIU and MSU not being in the top 25 in the TSN Poll?
SIU(25th in Coaches Poll) is 5-4, has lost 3 games in a row, one 1 of their wins was against Taylor. The 4 D1 wins are EIU(3-5), SE Missouri(4-5), WIU(3-6) and South Dakota(2-6). Not exactly an impressive resume.

MSU is 4-4 and unranked in the Coaches Poll, not just TSN. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games, with the only win over South Dakota(2-6). The other 3 wins are Central Arkansas(5-4), Northwestern State(4-4) and North Dakota(3-5). Again, far from a sterling resume.

1-NDSU... 7-ISU... 11-YSU....18-SDSU...19-Indy State...22-UNI
UNI has 4 losses, while Indy State and SDSU have 3 losses, yet they are still in the Top 25
UNI's 4 wins are Northern Colorado(2-6), Tenn Tech(3-5), WIU(3-6) and South Dakota(2-6), yet somehow they are ranked #22
SDSU has a win over UW-Oshkosh, and then wins over Cal-Poly(5-3), UNI(4-4), MSU(4-4), and S Utah(2-7) and yet they are ranked 18th

The MVFC has 6 teams ranked in the TSN Poll, including 5 in the Top 20
CAA has 5 teams ranked, and William&Mary at 5-3 is the only team with more than 2 losses
Big Sky has 3 ranked teams
Southland 3 teams
OVC 2 ranked teams
MEAC 2 ranked teams
So Con 1 ranked team
Big South 1 ranked team
Ivy League 1 team
NEC 1 team..Bryant(6-1) is 25th


As for the OOC games, Illinois is 4-4/1-3, but did have a very good win this past weekend over Minnesota. I know YSU lost to Illinois, but the more games Illinois wins, the more that helps the SOS for non conference games.
*Duquesne is 5-3/1-1 and in 4th place in the 7 team NEC. 2 of the wins are against non FCS teams, which puts Duquesne at 3-3 against FCS schools.
*St Francis is 3-5/1-2. They had a nice win this past week over Sacred Heart(6-2), but their 2 other wins are over Clarion and Lynchburg
*Butler is 3-5/1-4, with wins over Wittenberg, Taylor and Stetson(3-5/1-3)

When it comes to beating ranked opponents, the only ranking that means anything is the final regular season rankings. Every year there are teams ranked early in the season that finish at .500 or worse. YSU is in good position to make the playoffs, provided they play like a playoff team in November. Go 4-0 or 3-1 in November, and YSU is a lock for the playoffs. Go 2-2, with the losses at ISU and NDSU, and YSU likely gets in as the 3rd team from the MVFC. Go 1-3 or 0-4, and no playoffs. As Tress used to say, "November is for contenders", and we will see over the next 4 weeks which teams are contenders, and which teams are pretenders.

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