9-3 not good enough for playoffs?

[Spiderlegs]

YSU football can go 9-3 and still miss the playoffs.  Here's how:

NDSU--no losses
UNI--loses to NDSU
SDSU--loses to NDSU and UNI
YSU--loses to NDSU and SDSU (third loss: Illinois)

Under this scenario, YSU finishes 4th in the MVFC due to the tiebreaker. Given recent history, do you really think the FCS selection committee will send 4 teams from MVFC into the playoffs?

Ah, you say, but look at the Illinois game.  Yes, look at the Illinois game--no movement in the polls for YSU.  The world is saying "meh" over what it saw Saturday--only YSU fans think that the result is good. Instead, FCS selection committee will look at the Duquesne/Butler/St. Francis trifecta and ask why YSU had such a weak non-conference schedule. 

[penguinpower]

Excellent points.   The one factor that could help us is all of the attention that Patty Viverito has made about the MVFC getting the perennial screw job by the playoff committee.   Now there has been national attention made by her and others so they will likely take 4, but even if we win SIU could still be in the mix because we don't play Northern Iowa.

I just connected the dots on why the UNI athletic director held the two lower level fcs games against us last year.......it is because they are playing two  85 scholarship teams this year.  He was positioning because he knows the odds of going into conference play with two losses and they could easily end up with 3.  UNI has to  play NDSU as well.

[YSUinBoston]

There is no way on Earth this team goes 9-3.

[Wick250]

Any team from the MVFC, the Big Sky, or the CAA that finishes 9-3 (or 8-3 most years) will automatically go with the 24 team field.  8-4 (or 7-4 most years) opens the door to politics.  I don't think that the selection committee will admit three teams from poor conferences again any time soon.  There is no love for us nationally, but the NCAA has been blasted repeatedly in the media for selecting three teams from the terrible OVC last season.

Also, the gap between the MVFC and the rest of the FCS world might actually get larger this year.  The CAA already has two awful losses to the NEC.  The Southern Conference has evaporated as a national player.  The bottom of the Big Sky is very bad.

Spiderlegs, as Power mentioned, you left out Southern Illinois in your equation.  They are probably better than SDSU, especially since SDSU lost their quarterback for at least six weeks.  I expect the MVFC will get four spots this season.  Whether we are one of those four is the open question.  We won't get a real feel for that until the Missouri State game.

[Dmorton]

I wouldn't worry, we're not going to win nine games anyway!

[HappyPenguin]

It wont matter how bad the other conferences are. They'll still get wins beating up one each other. Multiple teams from those conferences will get the nod into the playoffs and exit quickly.

Happens every year. This just looks like the year where everyone is up in arms with how many the CAA or Big Sky gets. Last year was the OVC.

Then we'll have this same discussion next year about how the MVFC is the best conference (it is) , how our conference gets jobbed every year by the committee (it does), how the NCAA has been blasted by the media for selecting too many teams from a bad conference in the offseason (like they care one bit what the media thinks).

The day after the field is selected you can start posting replies in the threads about:

Fire Wolford\his contract 
Will Tressel coach?   
Will we join the MAC \ budget 
The MVFC got screwed again 
We have the worst commissioner in FCS 

Then when recruiting starts we do this all over again.

[Double ET]

There is no way on Earth this team goes 9-3.

I agree. We will not be able to win 9 games without a passing game. Last year, we had both passing and running game and we still could not beat the MVC top teams. As shown in the Illinois game, we cannot catch up with the running game when we felt behind. Am I to believe that we would always be ahead so we could run out the clock with our running game against those top teams?
It would be difficult to run the 2 minute offense to catch up when Wolf burned all 3 timeouts in the 3rd quarter.

[ysufan0505]

Yeah, I believe 9-3 is a little out of the reach. Will be interesting....

[ysuguins4]

If SDSU's QB is still out when we play them, then 9-3 becomes more plausible.

[Penguin Nation]

The MVFC is an FCS conference unlike any other.  It would be more appropriately placed as an FBS conference.  The selection committee deeming it a two bid league is outrageous.

Massey's top 10 has 5 MVFC teams (All 5 MVFC teams are above the top CAA team).

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf2014&sub=11605

In terms of conference strength, Massey ranks the MVFC over the MAC, the Sun Belt, and way above the CAA.

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf2014&c=1&sub=11590

I like playing the big dogs, but since there is undeniable bias against the MVFC, we are prevented from playing big dogs in the post-season.

I do think YSU can go 9-3.  An MVFC team going 9-3 and not making a 24 field post-season?  Than YSU must leave the MVFC.  That being said, having three so called "weanie" games is terrible.  1-2 at most.  The selection committee is not impressed by weenie game wins.  Replace one with an away game at Akron or Kent, collect another check,  and have fun tearing them up.

[Lets_Talk]

SDSU has a very good backup QB. I watched most of the game against Mizzou. He was 21-28 for 238 yards, and only threw 1 INT. They have 2 big receivers. One is 6'4", the other 6'5". The coaching staff did a really nice job of running high percentage pass plays. And, it helps to have 2 tall receivers who can go and get the ball. And, they have Zenner who ran for over 100 yards against Mizzou. SDSU also has a solid defense. Losing the starting QB hurts, but they have a highly capable backup QB. And, they have receivers that are very difficult to cover, including Zenner out of the backfield. YSU is only 1-6 against SDSU since SDSU moved up to FCS. The win came back in 2007, with SDSU winning 6 in a row.

NDSU has not skipped a beat. I watched alot of that game. Cannot even tell they have a new HC.

Obviously, YSU could win 1, or both of these games. YSU beat NDSU a few years ago at NDSU. But, do not be fooled into thinking SDSU is severely weakened by the loss of their starting QB. The backup played all but the first 3 possessions.

Missouri State is no longer a pushover, and that is the first MVFC game for both teams. It i on the road, and will be  big game for both teams. MSU has won 4 in a row against YSU, after going 1-11 against YSU from 96-2007.

Alot of people seem to be high on Illinois State, and historically, they have been a thorn in the side of YSU. This includes when Tress was HC

YSU going 2-2 in these 4 road games will not be easy, and I would even say 2-2 in these 4 games would be a solid accomplishment.

As for the 4 home games, YSU traditionally lays an egg in at least 1 home game. This is something that happened even when Tressel was HC.

9-3/6-2 gets YSU into the playoffs, and likely at least 1 home game.
8-4/5-3 makes things much more dicey, especially if the losses are against other MVFC teams being considered for at large bids.

Unlike many on this board, I do not believe YSU gets screwed by the selection committee. And, while the MVFC is definitely one of the best conferences in FCS, the teams do not tend to fare all that well in the playoffs. I believe this, as much as anything is a major factor in the number of teams selected for the playoffs. OOC schedule strength is also a factor, especially for YSU. The D2 games are gone, but in their place are games against teams from the 2 worst conferences in FCS. One is non-scholarship, and the other partial scholarship. YSU would be much better served in a year with 12 games to play at least 1 team from a full scholarship FCS conference. Even if it is a bottom tier team, that would be a better win and help the SOS.

[IAA Fan]

I still think NDSU beats YSU, but they will not be in the post-season this year. Again if the new HC chooses to run the same O and D as his predecessor ...then they will make it. SDSU's offense runs well, so who cares about the QB? as Talk says they have two huge WR's and two receiving TE's. They run slant pass plays and run the ball. This is why they beat us last year.

Any team in the MVFC is in the play-off at 9-3 ...in my mind we are only arguing about a seed. At 4th-place in the conference there is no chance that we would be seeded.

[ysuguins4]

YSU would be much better served in a year with 12 games to play at least 1 team from a full scholarship FCS conference. Even if it is a bottom tier team, that would be a better win and help the SOS.

Couldn't agree more.  This season and last would have been a great time to play a home and home with an OVC or CAA team.  It would have been worth giving up the home game against Morehead St to play a quality out of conference team on the road.

[Spiderlegs]

My original post wasn't intended to be a prediction but a statement of how hard it will be to make the playoffs even if we have a sensational season. Because the schedule is so weak, it is hard for me to see YSU in the playoffs unless they are 10-2 or there are lots of upsets in MVFC.

[Lets_Talk]

1AA fan, hard for me to imagine NDSU not finishing at least 9-3 this year, even with the new coach. I watched alot of their game against Iowa State. NDSU dominated ISU. I know ISU is a bottom tier Big 12 team, but yesterday they played #20 Kansas State and the score was 32-28. NDSU won 24-7 yesterday at Weber State. They ought to finish the OOC schedule 3-1 at the worst, as they play Incarnate Word and then Montana, both at home. Hard to see NDSU losing more than 2 games in the MVFC.

Ysuguins4, I think YSU ought to play a team from a full scholarship FCS conference every year as part of the OC schedule. Even in the years they have only 3 OOC games. And, I agree with you about playing teams from the CAA and OVC. YSU has played many schools from these 2 conferences in the past. I think a good idea would be schedule a home-home with a school such as EKU, Delaware, Nova, JMU, Towson, Richmond, EIU. Agree that these games are played in the years 12 games are allowed. This way, even in the year YSU plays this game on the road, they still have 2 OOC games at home, and 6 home games overall.

In an 11 game season, schedule a team from the MEAC, or a bottom tier team from the OVC or CAA. These games would help with schedule strength. The opponents would be more comparable to what YSU will face in the MVFC. And, even when playing a higher tier team from the OVC or CAA, it would be a great way to gauge just how well YSU stacks up against the top teams from these 2 conferences. Especially given all the talk about the strength of the MVFC compared to other conferences. What better way to prove that to be true then by playing and beating teams from those 2 conferences that are regular playoff teams/contenders?

Spider Legs, I still think at 9-3 YSU would make the playoffs. That would mean going 6-2 in the MVFC. Things get dicey when the record in MVFC is 5-3, as that brings more MVFC teams into the mix, and also moves YSU further down the list of at large teams wit an 8-4 record and a weak OOC schedule.