YSU has two games this week: Home on Wednesday to league leading Valparaiso and trip to Detroit on Friday to face a Titans team that embarassed YSU 101-60 at Beeghley earlier this month.
Valpo is currently 6-1 in the league, YSU 4-3. A YSU win Wednesday night has them at 5-2, one game behind and in the thick of the race for a bye or two in the post-season tournament. A loss and YSU will be three games back half way through the league schedule and behind enough teams that any hope of finishing first will effectively be lost.
The 3 main ratings systems I follow all make Valpo a slight favorite. Pomeroy predicts 72-69 Valpo giving YSU a 38% chance of winning. Massey says 71-68 Valpo, YSU with a 42% chance of winning. Sagarin's overall ratings lead to Valpo favored by 2 1/2, his predictor ratings say Valpo by 3.
YSU is a big underdog at Detroit (not unexpectedly). Pomeroy gives YSU only a 13% chance of winning, calling for a 87-72 Detroit win. Massey has it 82-73 Detroit with YSU's chances at 20%. Sagarin has Detroit a 9 (overall) or 11 1/2 (predictor) point favorite.
A sweep this week and YSU is in great shape.
A split this week and YSU still has a chance for at least a first round bye and perhaps a two round bye with a great finish.
Get swept this week and YSU will fight to finish .500 in the league and to gain a first round home game.
After the Detroit game, YSU gets their most favorable stretch in the season, playing the next four games against the four teams behind them in the standings. A trip to Cleveland State, followed by home games with the Chicago schools and Milwaukee. A home game with Green Bay closes out the home portion of the schedule, before the season ends with games at Valpo and Wright State.
