Kent State enters tonight’s game at YSU with a 4-2 record. The Golden Flashes are playing just their second road game of the season.
Kent has won home games against Drexel 66-62 (OT), Chicago State (92-63) and future YSU opponent Bethune Cookman (69- 68) and won at Nebraska 74-60. Losses were at home to Temple (80-66) and Horizon League favorite Valpo (88-83 in OT).
A quick look at Pomeroy’s advanced stats show Kent excelling in offensive rebounds, creating turnovers and getting to the foul line. In YSU’s poorer performances, keeping opponents off the offensive glass and getting in foul troubles have been major contributing factors. Play hard and smart is a must. Conversely Kent is among the worst teams in defensive two point field goal percentage.
My morning paper has YSU as a 4.5 point favorite.
Pomeroy gives YSU a 67% chance of winning, projecting a 75-70 YSU win. Massey has YSU with a 60% chance of winning and a 76-73 projection. Massey and Pomeroy are both currently projecting YSU to finish 17-12, 9-7. YSU is Pomeroy’s second ranked Horizon League team, Massey has YSU ranked fourth in the league.
Sagarin has YSU ranked 128 overall, Kent ranked 129. The home court advantage of four points is effectively the margin. Sagarin’s Predictor Rankings have Kent ahead of YSU, but the home court advantage makes YSU a three point favorite.
Another tight game coming it appears. All the analysis above indicates a 3 to 5 point YSU win in a relatively high scoring game.