Wild Finish in the Horizon?!?

[Just Toyin]

Every time I allow myself to get too optomistic, it seems we come crashing back down to earth.  BUT, after yesterdays Horizon league results, it is not too far fetched that the following scenario could play out - and if it does, I believe (dare I say it) we could still climb into that very key #2 seed in the Horizon?!!!

Scenario -

UWM wins 2 on the road (against the current bottom two teams in the league) - UWM ends at 11-7.
Valpo beats Butler - Butler ends at 11-7
Detroit wins at Cleve St - Cleve St ends at 11-7
YSU beats Detroit - Detroit ends at 11-7
YSU beats WSU (before beating Detroit) - YSU ends at 11-7

In this scenario, with a 5-way tie, I believe we are the only team with a winning percentage versus the others - we would get the 2 seed!!!

Obviously, the pieces would all have to fall into place - especially us taking care of business at home (which I expect both games to be huge challenges for us).  I also don't rule out the worst case scenario where we could lose both games and fall all the way down towards the bottom of the league again.  But I hope Coach Slocum and the team can take care of business over the next few days - and knowing we have the potential to beat any opponent we will face in the tourney - sounds like a cinderella story is not out of the question (especially if we could slide into that #2 seed!)?

Whatever the results, thanks to the players and coaches for an exciting and enjoyable year of basketball!!!

Good Luck Guins!!!

[ysuindy]

You are correct on that tie-breaker analysis.

In that circumstance, YSU would be 5-3, Butler, CSU and Detroit would be 4-4 and UWM would be 3-5. 

We will know a lot more after Thursday night - the possibilities get reduced significantly.

I think you are right that YSU winning two at home might be the hardest part of that equation. 

[Just Toyin]

Looking a bit further, I think the scenario gets even better as it appears we don't need UWM to win out to join in on the 5 way tie (and give us the 2/0 wins versus loss we hold against them).  If UWM loses either or both of their games, there will could be a 4 way tie for second - and each of the 4 teams having identical 3-3 records versus the other opponents.  At that point we would be the only team to have defeated Valpo - at which point we again would get the #2 seed!!!

Indy, can you check my "math"?

[ysuindy]

Toyin - your math is correct.

In that scenario, Valpo would have finished 14-4.  Losses to UWM, Wright State, Green Bay and YSU.

At 1-1 vs Valpo, YSU would win the tiebreaker over 0-2 CSU, Butler and Detroit.

So two scenarios.

Sounds like NFL playoff tiebreakers.

It would appear Detroit has the cleanest path to finish second.  If the Titans beat YSU and CSU, at worst they finish in a two way tie with Butler at 12-6 and UDM would have two wins over Butler.

[ysuindy]

I believe tonight's results have eliminated YSU of any chance from finishing second.

Butler and CSU are now 11-6, Detroit, YSU and UWM are 10-7.

A YSU win over Detroit would put YSU at 11-7.  The tie possibilities are:

A 3 way tie with Butler and CSU.  Butler would win that tiebreaker at 3-1 because of their sweep over YSU. 

A 4 way tied with Butler, CSU and UWM.  Butler would win that tiebreaker at 4-2.

YSU can finish as high as third with a win and a CSU loss to Wright State.

A 3 way tie with CSU and UWM goes to YSU with a 3-1 record thanks to their sweep of UWM

A  2 way tie with CSU would go to YSU due to their win over #1 Valpo.

I believe YSU would get third in the four way tie scenario described above.

A 2 way tie with Butler at 11-7 would go to Butler.

A 3 way tie with Butler and UWM for third would go to Butler at 3-1.

A YSU loss would leave them at 10-8 and either #5 or #6.

Finishing #3 or #4 means hosting Loyola or UIC

Finishing #5 or #6 means hosting Wright State or Green Bay

[ysuindy]

Now I am not so sure that YSU has clinched a home game.

A YSU loss to Detroit would put them at 10-8.

They would be behinid Valpo, Butler, CSU and Detroit.

UWM plays at Loyola, Green Bay plays at UIC.

If YSU loses the options are:

YSU, UWM and UWGB all finish 10-8.  YSU is fifth in this scenario at 3-1, UWM is 2-2 and UWGB 1-3

UWGB loses and YSU is tied with UWM and finished 5th or finishes alone in 6th.

UWM and UWGB both win, YSU loses.  YSU and Green Bay finished tied for 6th.  Split games.  Both are 1-1 vs Valpo and 1-1 vs CSU.  Green Bay would be 1-1 vs Butler and YSU would be 0-2 vs Butler.  Perhaps a Butler loss in a tie that involves Detroit and Milwaukee as well could push Butler far enough down behind UWM to put YSU in a position for a tiebreak win.

My head hurts - just win Saturday night. 

[ItalianPenguin]

Indy, my understanding is we have not clinched a home game. The problem is we would lose a tie-breaker with green Bay IF Butler finishes second.

[ysuindy]

From the Horizon League Press Release

The bad scenario is at the bottom.  YSU is a big Valpo fan tonight.  Butler losing helps YSU in many tiebreaker scenarios.


t-4. Youngstown State (10-7) – vs. Detroit

Clinches No. 3 seed with win AND BU loss AND CSU loss AND UWM win (BU, CSU, UWM, YSU 11-7 – BU 4-2, CSU 3-3, UWM 2-4, YSU 3-3; YSU with best win over CSU – beat Valpo) 

Clinches No. 3 seed with win AND BU win AND CSU loss AND UWM loss (YSU, CSU 11-7 – split reg. season; YSU with best win – Valpo)

Clinches No. 3 seed with win AND BU win AND CSU loss AND UWM win (CSU, UWM, YSU 11-7 – YSU 3-1, CSU 2-2, UWM 1-3)

Clinches No. 4 seed with win AND BU win AND CSU win AND UWM win (YSU, UWM 11-7 – YSU swept UWM)

Clinches No. 4 seed with win AND BU loss AND CSU loss AND UWM loss (BU, CSU, YSU 11-7 – BU 3-1, CSU 2-2, YSU 1-3)

Clinches No. 4 seed with win AND BU loss AND CSU win AND UWM loss (BU, YSU 11-7 – BU swept YSU)

Clinches No. 4 seed with win AND BU loss AND CSU win AND UWM win (BU, UWM, YSU 11-7 – BU 3-1, UWM 1-3, YSU 2-2)

Clinches No. 5 seed with loss AND UWM loss AND GB win (YSU, UWM, GB 10-8 – YSU 3-1, UWM 2-2, GB 1-3)

Clinches No. 6 seed with loss AND UWM win AND GB win in any scenario in which DET or UWM finishes ahead of BU (YSU, GB 10-8 – split reg. season; YSU, GB each beat Valpo, so  would depend on 2nd place team – if BU, GB gets No. 6 seed; if CSU, each team split, forcing it down ladder; if DET, YSU gets No. 6 seed; if UWM, YSU gets No. 6 seed)

Clinches No. 7 seed with loss AND UWM win AND GB win AND BU win (YSU, GB 10-8 – BU would be No. 2 seed, giving GB best win moving down ladder)

 

[ysuindy]

Unless I am missing something, I believe Valpo's win over Butler last night means YSU can't finish worse than 6th.

With a loss today and a Green Bay win, YSU needs either Detroit or Milwaukee to finish ahead of Butler.  In the event of a tie with Green Bay, YSU and Green Bay will have split, meaning you work your way down the standings comparing records.  Both YSU and Green Bay were 1-1 against Valpo and CSU.  YSU wins the comparisons over Detroit (1-1 vs 0-2) and Milwaukee (2-0, 0-2).  Green Bay wins the comparison against Butler (1-1 vs 0-2)

Remembering all this assume a YSU loss to Detroit today, therefore the other variables are CSU and Milwaukee

If both CSU and Milwaukee win, CSU is second, Detorit, Butler and Milwaukee finish tied for third.  Detorit is seeded third (3-1 record( therefore  YSU wins tiebreaker with Green Bay

If CSU wins and Milwaukee loses, YSU, Milwaukee and Green Bay tie for fifth.  YSU is fifth with a 3-1 record, Milwaukee sixth at 2-2 and Green Bay seventh.

If CSU loses and Milwaukee wins, there is a four way tie for second among Butler, Detroit, CSU and Milwaukee.  CSU is second a 4-2, Butler is fifth at 2-4.  Milwaukee and Detroit would each be 3-3.  YSU would win tiebreaker with Green Bay.

If both CSU and Milwaukee lose, there is three way tie for fifth (as above) and YSU wins tiebreaker.

[ysuindy]

What hasn't changed is that if YSU wins, they are either the third or fourth seed.

The path to a third place finish is for Milwaukee to win and CSU to lose.  This creates a 4 way tie for second with Butler, CSU, YSU and Milwaukee.  Butler would be the second seed due to a 4-2 vs this group. YSU would tie CSU at 3-3, but would win third due to YSU's win over Valpo.

Any other scenario with a YSU win means fourth seed for YSU.

[ItalianPenguin]

it'll be Green Bay