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Wild Finish in the Horizon?!?

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ysuindy:
Now I am not so sure that YSU has clinched a home game.

A YSU loss to Detroit would put them at 10-8.

They would be behinid Valpo, Butler, CSU and Detroit.

UWM plays at Loyola, Green Bay plays at UIC.

If YSU loses the options are:

YSU, UWM and UWGB all finish 10-8.  YSU is fifth in this scenario at 3-1, UWM is 2-2 and UWGB 1-3

UWGB loses and YSU is tied with UWM and finished 5th or finishes alone in 6th.

UWM and UWGB both win, YSU loses.  YSU and Green Bay finished tied for 6th.  Split games.  Both are 1-1 vs Valpo and 1-1 vs CSU.  Green Bay would be 1-1 vs Butler and YSU would be 0-2 vs Butler.  Perhaps a Butler loss in a tie that involves Detroit and Milwaukee as well could push Butler far enough down behind UWM to put YSU in a position for a tiebreak win.

My head hurts - just win Saturday night.  :)

ItalianPenguin:
Indy, my understanding is we have not clinched a home game. The problem is we would lose a tie-breaker with green Bay IF Butler finishes second.

ysuindy:
From the Horizon League Press Release

The bad scenario is at the bottom.  YSU is a big Valpo fan tonight.  Butler losing helps YSU in many tiebreaker scenarios.


t-4. Youngstown State (10-7) – vs. Detroit

Clinches No. 3 seed with win AND BU loss AND CSU loss AND UWM win (BU, CSU, UWM, YSU 11-7 – BU 4-2, CSU 3-3, UWM 2-4, YSU 3-3; YSU with best win over CSU – beat Valpo) 

Clinches No. 3 seed with win AND BU win AND CSU loss AND UWM loss (YSU, CSU 11-7 – split reg. season; YSU with best win – Valpo)

Clinches No. 3 seed with win AND BU win AND CSU loss AND UWM win (CSU, UWM, YSU 11-7 – YSU 3-1, CSU 2-2, UWM 1-3)

Clinches No. 4 seed with win AND BU win AND CSU win AND UWM win (YSU, UWM 11-7 – YSU swept UWM)

Clinches No. 4 seed with win AND BU loss AND CSU loss AND UWM loss (BU, CSU, YSU 11-7 – BU 3-1, CSU 2-2, YSU 1-3)

Clinches No. 4 seed with win AND BU loss AND CSU win AND UWM loss (BU, YSU 11-7 – BU swept YSU)

Clinches No. 4 seed with win AND BU loss AND CSU win AND UWM win (BU, UWM, YSU 11-7 – BU 3-1, UWM 1-3, YSU 2-2)

Clinches No. 5 seed with loss AND UWM loss AND GB win (YSU, UWM, GB 10-8 – YSU 3-1, UWM 2-2, GB 1-3)

Clinches No. 6 seed with loss AND UWM win AND GB win in any scenario in which DET or UWM finishes ahead of BU (YSU, GB 10-8 – split reg. season; YSU, GB each beat Valpo, so  would depend on 2nd place team – if BU, GB gets No. 6 seed; if CSU, each team split, forcing it down ladder; if DET, YSU gets No. 6 seed; if UWM, YSU gets No. 6 seed)

Clinches No. 7 seed with loss AND UWM win AND GB win AND BU win (YSU, GB 10-8 – BU would be No. 2 seed, giving GB best win moving down ladder)

 

ysuindy:
Unless I am missing something, I believe Valpo's win over Butler last night means YSU can't finish worse than 6th.

With a loss today and a Green Bay win, YSU needs either Detroit or Milwaukee to finish ahead of Butler.  In the event of a tie with Green Bay, YSU and Green Bay will have split, meaning you work your way down the standings comparing records.  Both YSU and Green Bay were 1-1 against Valpo and CSU.  YSU wins the comparisons over Detroit (1-1 vs 0-2) and Milwaukee (2-0, 0-2).  Green Bay wins the comparison against Butler (1-1 vs 0-2)

Remembering all this assume a YSU loss to Detroit today, therefore the other variables are CSU and Milwaukee

If both CSU and Milwaukee win, CSU is second, Detorit, Butler and Milwaukee finish tied for third.  Detorit is seeded third (3-1 record( therefore  YSU wins tiebreaker with Green Bay

If CSU wins and Milwaukee loses, YSU, Milwaukee and Green Bay tie for fifth.  YSU is fifth with a 3-1 record, Milwaukee sixth at 2-2 and Green Bay seventh.

If CSU loses and Milwaukee wins, there is a four way tie for second among Butler, Detroit, CSU and Milwaukee.  CSU is second a 4-2, Butler is fifth at 2-4.  Milwaukee and Detroit would each be 3-3.  YSU would win tiebreaker with Green Bay.

If both CSU and Milwaukee lose, there is three way tie for fifth (as above) and YSU wins tiebreaker.

ysuindy:
What hasn't changed is that if YSU wins, they are either the third or fourth seed.

The path to a third place finish is for Milwaukee to win and CSU to lose.  This creates a 4 way tie for second with Butler, CSU, YSU and Milwaukee.  Butler would be the second seed due to a 4-2 vs this group. YSU would tie CSU at 3-3, but would win third due to YSU's win over Valpo.

Any other scenario with a YSU win means fourth seed for YSU.

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