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Wild Finish in the Horizon?!?

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Just Toyin:
Every time I allow myself to get too optomistic, it seems we come crashing back down to earth.  BUT, after yesterdays Horizon league results, it is not too far fetched that the following scenario could play out - and if it does, I believe (dare I say it) we could still climb into that very key #2 seed in the Horizon?!!!

Scenario -

UWM wins 2 on the road (against the current bottom two teams in the league) - UWM ends at 11-7.
Valpo beats Butler - Butler ends at 11-7
Detroit wins at Cleve St - Cleve St ends at 11-7
YSU beats Detroit - Detroit ends at 11-7
YSU beats WSU (before beating Detroit) - YSU ends at 11-7

In this scenario, with a 5-way tie, I believe we are the only team with a winning percentage versus the others - we would get the 2 seed!!!

Obviously, the pieces would all have to fall into place - especially us taking care of business at home (which I expect both games to be huge challenges for us).  I also don't rule out the worst case scenario where we could lose both games and fall all the way down towards the bottom of the league again.  But I hope Coach Slocum and the team can take care of business over the next few days - and knowing we have the potential to beat any opponent we will face in the tourney - sounds like a cinderella story is not out of the question (especially if we could slide into that #2 seed!)?

Whatever the results, thanks to the players and coaches for an exciting and enjoyable year of basketball!!!

Good Luck Guins!!!

ysuindy:
You are correct on that tie-breaker analysis.

In that circumstance, YSU would be 5-3, Butler, CSU and Detroit would be 4-4 and UWM would be 3-5. 

We will know a lot more after Thursday night - the possibilities get reduced significantly.

I think you are right that YSU winning two at home might be the hardest part of that equation. 

Just Toyin:
Looking a bit further, I think the scenario gets even better as it appears we don't need UWM to win out to join in on the 5 way tie (and give us the 2/0 wins versus loss we hold against them).  If UWM loses either or both of their games, there will could be a 4 way tie for second - and each of the 4 teams having identical 3-3 records versus the other opponents.  At that point we would be the only team to have defeated Valpo - at which point we again would get the #2 seed!!!

Indy, can you check my "math"?

ysuindy:
Toyin - your math is correct.

In that scenario, Valpo would have finished 14-4.  Losses to UWM, Wright State, Green Bay and YSU.

At 1-1 vs Valpo, YSU would win the tiebreaker over 0-2 CSU, Butler and Detroit.

So two scenarios.

Sounds like NFL playoff tiebreakers.

It would appear Detroit has the cleanest path to finish second.  If the Titans beat YSU and CSU, at worst they finish in a two way tie with Butler at 12-6 and UDM would have two wins over Butler.

ysuindy:
I believe tonight's results have eliminated YSU of any chance from finishing second.

Butler and CSU are now 11-6, Detroit, YSU and UWM are 10-7.

A YSU win over Detroit would put YSU at 11-7.  The tie possibilities are:

A 3 way tie with Butler and CSU.  Butler would win that tiebreaker at 3-1 because of their sweep over YSU. 

A 4 way tied with Butler, CSU and UWM.  Butler would win that tiebreaker at 4-2.

YSU can finish as high as third with a win and a CSU loss to Wright State.

A 3 way tie with CSU and UWM goes to YSU with a 3-1 record thanks to their sweep of UWM

A  2 way tie with CSU would go to YSU due to their win over #1 Valpo.

I believe YSU would get third in the four way tie scenario described above.

A 2 way tie with Butler at 11-7 would go to Butler.

A 3 way tie with Butler and UWM for third would go to Butler at 3-1.

A YSU loss would leave them at 10-8 and either #5 or #6.

Finishing #3 or #4 means hosting Loyola or UIC

Finishing #5 or #6 means hosting Wright State or Green Bay

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