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Horizon League Hoops Power Rankings

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ysuindy:
YSU up to fourth. 

http://horizonleaguehoops.com/2012/01/09/power-rankings-week-9/

Power Rankings: Week 9
BY CHRIS BURROWS ⋅ JANUARY 9, 2012 ⋅ POST A COMMENT
This is a mess.

As I wrote about on Run the Floor last week, parity is running rampant in the Horizon League. Through 27 league games, four teams are either 4-1 or 4-2, six teams are ranked between 124 and 184 in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, and the 12 games played so far that only involve those easily defined ‘top 7′ were decided by an average scoring margin of 5.1 points (although Valpo’s 18-point loss to Wright State yesterday works significantly against that figure).

At this point picking the home team is your best bet, although still, not by much. Horizon League teams are 16-11 at home in conference play. All five home teams picked up wins this past weekend (by an average margin of 14.4 points, if you were curious).

So how can I justify rankings when teams are so closely matched? Through the power of tempo-free stats. Included in this week’s rankings: justifications.

1. (3 last week) Cleveland State (14-3, 4-1 Horizon League)
Efficiency margin: +8.8

Justification: Trey Harmon is back (from a concussion), the Vikings have the best efficiency margin in the league (thanks to the league’s second most efficient defense and fourth most efficient offense), and CSU is one of only two teams that hasn’t lost on the road in conference play (the other being Wright State). Holy parentheticals.

Next: At Butler, Friday, 6 p.m. (CST)

2. (2) Milwaukee (11-6, 4-1)
Efficiency margin: +6.6

 Justification: While the Panthers are overall balanced and efficient, it’s their defense that’s keeping them in games. The offense is underperforming. The Panthers haven’t averaged over 1.0 points per possession in a game since they defeated D-I newcomer Nebraska-Omaha on Dec. 17. Poor shooting is mostly to blame.

The Panthers have shown welcome consistency, if nothing else, so they remain at No. 2.

Next: Vs. Wright State, Thursday, 7 p.m.

3. (1) Butler (9-8, 3-2)
Efficiency margin: +4.3

Justification: After beating Purdue and Stanford on the road, a road loss to struggling Detroit (in a low-possession game) is unacceptable. The Bulldogs trailed by 18 points with 2:15 to play, and even the Kampens got minutes. Butler has trouble keeping teams off the charity stripe, and is ranked worst in the Horizon in defensive free throw rate.

Surging Youngstown State threatens to overtake the Bulldogs.

Next: Vs. Cleveland St., Friday, 6 p.m.

4. (5) Youngstown State (9-6, 4-1)
Efficiency margin: -0.8

Justification: The Penguins pick up a spot for plenty of great reasons. Arbitrarily, they picked up their 1,000th program win last week, but, more importantly, YSU is off to their best conference start in program history. In addition to picking off Detroit and Cleveland State earlier in the season, the Penguins’ defense has now done what no other team has yet: hold UIC to 0.79 points per possession. Milwaukee (0.96 ppp) and Cleveland State (0.92) came no where near that number when they beat the Flames.

The YSU offense is picking up momentum too, and has scored better than 1.0 ppp in each of their last four games. They also lead the league in ballhandling with a nationally-ranked (seventh) average of one turnover in 16 percent of their possessions. The Penguins are for real. Only Butler’s non-con heroics keep the Penguins out of the top three — for now.

Next: At Valparaiso, Friday, 7 p.m.

5. (6) Detroit (8-10, 2-4)
Efficiency margin: +2.2

Justification: The Titans pick up a spot for running over Butler, but still have serious problems — expected for teams with just 10 players. Detroit just isn’t consisted in the paint, giving up a lot of second-chance points. LaMarcus Lowe can only block so many shots (he’s now in the top-20 in the country with a block in 11.1 percent of opponents’ possessions).

Detroit’s positive efficiency margin keeps them just above Wright State and Valparaiso.

Next: At Green Bay, Thursday, 7 p.m.

6. (7) Wright State (9-9, 4-2)
Efficiency margin: -1.8

Justification: Billy Donlon is running a defensive seminar at Wright State. Only one Horizon League team (Youngstown State) has managed to score better than 1.0 ppp against the Raiders. Butler, Valparaiso, Loyola and UIC have not been so lucky. The Raiders are also undefeated on the road. It says a lot when the No. 6 team in the rankings is this solid.

WSU moves up a spot, ahead of Valpo for taking down the Crusaders a 66-possession 18-point rout on Saturday. If their offense continues to turn around, the Raiders may challenge more teams at the top.

Next: At Milwaukee, Thursday, 7 p.m.

7. (5) Valparaiso (10-7, 3-2)
Efficiency margin: -0.4

Justification: Thanks to the league’s most inefficient defense, the Crusaders have slipped into the negative efficiency margin club. Valpo is a misfit among the teams at the top of the league: solid offense, terrible defense. That’s the opposite of the six teams ahead of them, but has lead to similar consequences. Poor shot defense (especially on the perimeter) is not helping their situation.

Next: Vs. Youngstown State, Friday, 7 p.m.

8. (8) Green Bay (6-9, 2-3)
Efficiency margin: -0.1

Justification: Three straight losses to three tough teams (Butler, Milwaukee and Valpo) by one possession. The Phoenix have a top-100 defense.

Next: Vs. Detroit, Thursday, 7 p.m.

9. (9) UIC (5-11, 1-5)
Efficiency margin: -10.7

Justification: The young Flames are figuring things out still and occasionally finding the right combinations. Still, they are wildly inefficient.

Next: Vs. Loyola, Saturday, 3 p.m.

10. (10) Loyola (5-11, 0-6)
Efficiency margin: -9.6

Justification: UIC beat Detroit. Loyola took Youngstown State to overtime, but still hasn’t earned a win. Credit to Porter Moser for running a slow offense with a short roster. It’s starting to show signs of life.

Next: At UIC, Saturday, 3 p.m.

Wick250:
It is refreshing to read such things.  But we are just not that good.  I'm afraid these same pundits will resort back to ridicule when we start to get clobbered by good, deep teams, especially on the road.  You just cannot sustain success in the Horizon League with only five players. 

ysuindy:
Wick - I share your doubts about the lack of depth eventually catching up to YSU.  That is why last weekend was so important.  However I believe that the league as a whole is down a bit from the last few years.  I think no better than 13-5 wins the regular season, maybe even 12-6.  I look a for a big logjam between 8-10 and 10-8 in the league.

OleYSUfan:
Indy & Wick:

I share your scepticism. We have a pretty good starting five, but what happens when Eargle gets into foul trouble against teams with good/strong inside players? This will happen and it will spell instant doom! If we go 9-9 in the Horizon that would surpass my wildest guess at the beginning of the season. Our future away games will be extremely demanding on our starting five.

I also agree the Horizon League is weak this year and a 12-8 record will win the league, but that team may lose in the Horizon tournament.

But it is sure nice to see YSU at 4-1 at this point!! :o

IAA Fan:
True, we lost the 30-point differential when we put i the two's, but it was worth it ...a couple of three's came out of it. We seem to be moving more quickly on offense & we are working the boards more. I like where this is going. It may take too long to get it together, or maybe we have begun to gel ...next two games will tell.

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