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Horizon League Hoops Power Rankings

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ysuindy:
Missed last week - life gets in the way sometimes

http://horizonleaguehoops.com/2012/01/23/power-rankings-week-11/

It’s hard to believe, but we’re half-way through the Horizon League regular season. The power rankings are starting to make more sense with the top five teams tied for either first or third place in the conference standings.

Included in this week’s expanded rankings: tempo-free up-sides and down-sides for all ten teams.

1. (2 last week) Cleveland State (17-4, 7-2 Horizon League)
Record vs. top 5: 2-2
Efficiency margin: +10.5

Up-side: The Vikings proved to Milwaukee that they now have a top-100 offense (87th per Pomeroy’s rankings) to complement their already top-100 defense (81st) when they scored 1.22 points per possession vs. Milwaukee’s Horizon-best defense (43rd on Pomeroy) on Sunday. This balanced system is reflected in their impressive efficiency margin.

Still, there’s that dangerous CSU backcourt that creates a turnover on 27.2 percent of their opponent’s possessions (3rd in the nation). The Vikings are also second only to Milwaukee in guarding the three with opponents hitting 29.6 percent from range (24th nationally).

They’re 8-1 at the Wolstein Center this season. Only Youngstown State has handled the Vikings at home.

Down-side: Cleveland State struggles to get to and keep opponents off of the free throw line. In fact, the Vikings are dead-last in both categories in the Horizon League and among the eight worst teams in the nation in both. They play a physical game and pay the price. Anton Grady and Aaron Pogue both average more than 6.0 fouls called per 40 minutes.

2. (1) Milwaukee (13-8, 6-3)
Record vs. top 5: 0-3
Efficiency margin: +5.5

Up-side: The Panthers win games when their defense comes to play. Not only do they guard shots exceedingly well (25th nationally in opponent eFG%), but they also keep their opponents from getting second chances with a 59th ranked opponent offensive rebounding rate. That’s an equation for low-scoring games. Milwaukee is only allowing 0.92 ppp.

Down-side: Unfortunately, the offense hasn’t adapted to player losses nearly as well. Milwaukee has managed less than a point per trip in seven of their last nine games. The Panther’s offensive fingerprint has completely shifted since last season, and mirrors Butler’s possession-sharing system. Senior PG Kaylon Williams, the king of assists, is now the team’s leading scorer after ranking fourth a season ago.

Milwaukee has also lost six of their last seven away games, and will be on the road for five of their last six games of the season.

3. (3) Butler (12-9, 6-3)
Record vs. top 5: 2-2
Efficiency margin: +3.0

Up-side: The Bulldogs are 11-2 this season when they hold opponents to less than or equal to a point per trip, and 1-7 when they don’t. Like Milwaukee, their defense wins them games, and is limiting opponents to 0.95 ppp on average. It helps that Ron Nored seems to be continuing to grow on the court. He’s second in assist rate (33.6 percent), third in steal rate (3.91 percent) and first in free throw rate (85.5 percent) in the Horizon League.

Down-side: Shooting. It seems as simple as that. The Bulldogs are worst in the League from range (28.1 percent), second-worst from the stripe (61.6 percent) and third-worst in overall eFG% (44.9) for a combined 0.98 ppp.

4. (5) Valparaiso (14-7, 7-2)
Record vs. top 5: 3-1
Efficiency margin: +2.6

Up-side: Since the start of the season, Valparaiso has been the one Horizon League team winning games with their offense, which is currently pegged at a league-best 1.07 ppp. Led by impressive sharp-shooting from Ryan Broekhoff and Will Bogan, the Crusaders have a combined effective field goal percentage (53.9 percent) that ranks 24th nationally. They hit two-pointers at an untouchable rate (57.2 percent) that is second in the nation only to Missouri.

There may be no more formidable front court duo in mid-major hoops than Ryan Broekhoff and Kevin Van Wijk.

Down-side: Similar to Butler and Milwaukee, Valpo has significant down-side, but it’s their defense, which is allowing 1.05 ppp. Weaknesses include an inability to create turnovers and shot-defense. Bryce Drew’s young backcourt is trying to sort these things out.

5. (6) Youngstown State (11-8, 6-3)
Record vs. top 5: 2-2
Efficiency margin: +0.3

Up-side: The Penguins are proving that tight ballhandling and threatening perimeter offense can win games. YSU leads the league in turnover rate with one in 16.8 percent of their possessions, and three-point shooting (38.6 percent). It doesn’t hurt that HLPOTW Blake Allen went 10-of-13 from three on the week in YSU’s two wins that propel YSU into the ranks of the teams with positive efficiency margins for the first time.

Down-side: At 1.04 ppp the Youngstown State offense could use more support. They just aren’t much of a threat in the post, and Damian Eargle has single-handedly kept the Penguins’ defense from falling apart with a ridiculous amount of blocks (the fourth best rate in the nation). YSU allows 1.04 ppp on the defensive end, and that’s too much.

6. (4) Detroit (10-11, 4-5)
Record vs. top 5: 1-4
Efficiency margin: +2.2

Up-side: As predicted the Titans’ offense packs a still-high-tempo (68.1 possessions per game) punch. They threaten from every corner of the front court and score 1.06 ppp.

Down-side: The Detroit backcourt isn’t pulling its share of the load. Worst shot-defense in the league, worst at defending the three and second-worst at shooting threes (29.3 percent). The Titans were the best three-point shooting team in the league a season ago (37.9 percent) with essentially the same lineup. What happened?

7. (7) Green Bay (7-12, 3-6)
Record vs. top 5: 0-5
Efficiency margin: -4.9

Up-side: Alec Brown (7-1) and Brennan Cougill (6-9) are an emerging frontcourt force in Green Bay. Both rank among the top nine defensive rebounders in the league, and have led the Phoenix to a league-best inside-the-arc shot-defense (44.2 percent).

Down-side: Still, Green Bay is falling prey to lots of steals and the league’s worst turnover rate that is limiting their offense to 0.96 points per trip.

8. (8) Wright State (9-12, 4-5)
Record vs. top 5: 2-3
Efficiency margin: -4.9

Up-side: There’s lots of defensive upside for WSU, which is home to the league’s third most efficient D. The Raiders create a league-best turnover in 26.5 percent of their opponents’ possessions in league play, and are second in limiting offensive rebounds (28.6 percent).

Down-side: Unfortunately their anemic offense outweighs their terrific defense. The Raiders rank seventh in all four offensive factors (OR%, eFG%, TO% and free throw rate).

9. (9) UIC (6-13, 2-7)
Record vs. top 5: 0-5
Efficiency margin: -11.1

Up-side: The Flames are the league’s third-best shot-defending team, and second-best at defending the three, but their defense isn’t especially strong at 1.03 ppp allowed. Darrin Williams has kept the Flames near the top in offensive rebounding rate (one in 34.8 percent of their possessions as a team in conference play).

Down-side: Daniel Barnes is a microcosm of the Flame’s offense. He’s shooting well from range (32.4 percent), and not well inside the arc (42.6 pecent). UIC is third as a team from three, and dead-last from two-point range.

10. (10) Loyola (5-14, 0-9)
Record vs. top 5: 0-5
Efficiency margin: -14.0

Up-side: Walt Gibler and Ben Averkamp. Bless their hearts. They are doing so many big things (ranked in 15 categories combined nationally), but two players a team does not make.

Down-side: The Ramblers have the league’s worst offensive and defensive efficiencies. It’s been a trying, injury-riddled season in Rogers Park.

ysuindy:
These rankings lose credibility this week. 

8 days after YSU beats Green Bay by 30 (77-47), that's right 30 points, they are ranked behind Green Bay.   YSU also ahead of Green Bay by 1 1/2 games in the league standings and has a better efficiency rating than Green Bay.

No justification at all.


http://horizonleaguehoops.com/2012/01/30/week-12-horizon-league-powers-rankings-in-haiku/

Because, BracketBusters.
Green Bay did big things this week
One point one six ppp.

The Phoenix, top five
Beat Butler and Drew at home
Late surge for young team?

The Chicago teams
Gave Donlon and McCallum
Empty wins: no Gibler.

Offensive rebounds
were the difference for Valpo
beat Panthers on road (other three factors basically even, the Crusaders had 6.5 percent more offensive rebounds per possession that  gave them a 10-15 second-chance points advantage in the 55-52 otherwise very defensive win).

CSU is clear
favorite. Pomeroy says
Vikings won’t lose again.

1. (1 last week) Cleveland State (18-4, 8-2 Horizon League)
Efficiency margin: +12.2

2. (4) Valparaiso (15-8, 8-3)
Efficiency margin: +2.1

3. (2) Milwaukee (14-9, 7-4)
Efficiency margin: +5.5

4. (3) Butler (12-11, 6-5)
Efficiency margin: +1.4

5. (7) Green Bay (9-12, 5-6)
Efficiency margin: -2.2

6. (5) Youngstown State (11-9, 6-4)
Efficiency margin: -1.4

7. (6) Detroit (12-11, 6-5)
Efficiency margin: +1.7

8. (8) Wright State (11-12, 6-5)
Efficiency margin: -5.3

9. (9) UIC (6-15, 2-9)
Efficiency margin: -10.4

10. (10) Loyola (5-16, 0-11)
Efficiency margin: -14.0

ysuindy:
Something tells me this week's comment may generate some discussion here. 

http://horizonleaguehoops.com/2012/02/06/power-rankings-week-13/

I’ve used adjusted efficiency margin all season as a core metric for ranking the Horizon League’s teams without really explaining why. These figures are calculated using Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings that essentially measure how many points a team scores per 100 possessions (offensive efficiency) and how many points a team allows per 100 possessions (defensive efficiency) but is weighted for factors such as road or home and recent wins or losses.

Subtracting these numbers gives the adjusted efficiency margin (i.e. 105.8 points scored per 100 Cleveland State possessions – 91.7 points allowed per 100 Cleveland State’s opponents’ possessions = +14.1 points margin). Teams that score more points than they allow, as in the Cleveland State example, have a positive efficiency margin. Teams that don’t are in the negative. This removes the variable of game pace from the stats and puts all teams on a level field for comparison.

As the season progresses, the sample sizes increase and a clearer image of where the Horizon’s teams stand becomes available: Cleveland State is clearly on top. Take a look.

(Note - I can't cut and paste the chart - you will need to click the link)

This chart clearly illustrates the full season of efficiency by Cleveland State that is only becoming more exaggerated and isolated from the group, the gradual rise of Youngstown State, the fall of Butler into mediocrity, and Milwaukee’s troubles of late. Valparaiso just is.

1. (1 last week) Cleveland State (20-4, 10-2 Horizon League)
Efficiency margin: +14.1

The Vikings didn’t miss D’Aundray Brown much over the weekend with easy wins over the Chicago teams, but they’ll miss his league-leading steal rate (one steal in 5.7 percent of opponents’ possessions) when Valpo comes to town looking for a season sweep on Thursday. Gary Waters said Brown is questionable.

Freshman 6-8 phenom Anton Grady would likely start again in Brown’s spot in the re-worked less guard-heavy lineup that actually could work in CSU’s favor against frontcourt heavyweights Kevin Van Wijk and Ryan Broekhoff. Pomeroy heavily favors the Vikings to snag the split with 86 percent.

With the 20-win plateau now in the rear-view mirror, the Vikes are back to getting votes in both top-25 polls.

2. (2) Valparaiso (17-8, 10-3)
Efficiency margin: +2.3

The Crusaders showed once again that their offense is susceptible to teams that are disruptive in the backcourt and grab a greater number of offensive boards. While Valpo beat Wright State (this time around), their offense struggled as it did last time around. Combined, the Crusaders’ offense (which averages 1.06 points per possessions) has scored 0.89 ppp against Wright State, a defense which shares characteristics of CSU’s D.

3. (3) Milwaukee (15-10, 8-5)
Efficiency margin: +4.2

The Panthers have attempted 555 three-point field goals (22.2 per game). That’s tops in the League and 16th-most in the nation. Almost a quarter of those attempts (22.5 percent) have come during Milwaukee’s recent slump (they lost four of their last six). Oh yeah, and the Panthers have the 253rd best 3pt% in the nation at 32.3 percent. Stick to assists, Kaylon Williams.

4. (7) Detroit (13-12, 7-6)
Efficiency margin: +1.8

Is Detroit (finally) heating up? They’ve won six of their last eight, and held Butler to 0.87 ppp in a characteristic 70-possession road win. This team is beginning to exude confidence. Take note, all other teams.

5. (6) Youngstown State (13-10, 8-5)
Efficiency margin: +0.2

It’s a hard case to make that the Penguins are ready for prime time. They looked ill-prepared for UIC’s offensive system in last week’s road loss in Chicago. All the pieces are there, and YSU has the second most efficient offense in league play (1.06 ppp), but leadership and intangibles just seem to be missing from the picture.

Is Jerry’s time up? I say next season is make or break for him.

6. (4) Butler (13-12, 7-6)
Efficiency margin: +0.8

There’s a reason Rotnei Clarke is always on the screen when Butler plays, even though he’s not in uniform and can’t play. The Bulldogs have the worst shooting in the Horizon and are ranked 317th in eFG% among all teams. They are the fourth-worst team in basketball (341st) at shooting from behind the arc. It really seems as simple as that. You can’t score points if you can’t hit shots. Clarke (and Kellen Dunham) changes that next season.

7. (5) Green Bay (9-13, 5-7)
Efficiency margin: -2.9

Alec Brown and Brennan Cougill are an imposing frontcourt force, but for some reason that isn’t translating on the defensive end. Opponents are still grabbing a league-worst offensive rebound in 36.5 percent of chances, while the Phoenix are only getting one in 30.0 percent. Still lots of growing to do in Green Bay.

8. (8) Wright State (11-14, 6-7)
Efficiency margin: -6.3

The Raiders are now causing more turnovers in league play than any other team, but the offense has a long way to go.

9. (9) UIC (7-16, 3-10)
Efficiency margin: -12.1

Gary Talton is taking control of his offense more, and Daniel Barnes is a superb outside shooter, but there are plenty of growing pains for the Flames.

10. (10) Loyola (5-18, 0-13)
Efficiency margin: -16.0

Even with Walt Gibler back in the lineup the Ramblers are struggling to score or stop scoring. Even their shortened roster doesn’t account for a troubling 43.9 percent eFG%.

ysuindy:

http://horizonleaguehoops.com/2012/02/13/power-rankings-week-14/

Power Rankings: Week 14
BY CHRIS BURROWS ⋅ FEBRUARY 13, 2012 ⋅ POST A COMMENT
With the league’s consensus bottom two teams — Loyola and UIC — out of the rotation last week (they played each other), competition for the other eight teams was fierce.

In this week’s rankings: Stats that speak.

1. (2 last week) Valparaiso (18-9, 11-4 Horizon League)
Efficiency margin: +3.3

The Crusaders’ loss at Youngstown State Saturday is considered moot because VU was without three players from their eight-man rotation, including centerpiece Kevin Van Wijk — who was nursing a knee injury.

Stat that speaks: Valpo held Cleveland State to a season-worst 0.67 points per trip in their 59-41 win Thursday. Credit the perfected Broekhoff-Van Wijk post double-team system.

2. (1) Cleveland State (20-6, 10-4)
Efficiency margin: +10.8

Freshman Anton Grady is doing insane things as a starter (game-high 18 points to go with 13 boards and  2 blocks vs. Butler Saturday), but the Vikings’ shooters are starting to go cold. They lost two in a row for the first time all season. Doesn’t help that CSU puts teams at the free throw line a lot.

Stat that speaks: The Vikings launched 102 shots in their two games last week and made 32 (31.3 percent).

3. (4) Detroit (15-12, 9-6)
Efficiency margin: +1.6

I hate using the word “swagger.” But if there’s a team in the Horizon with “swagger” right now, it’s Detroit. Back-to-back comeback wins against the Wisconsin teams have the Titans winning eight of their last 10. They’re looking more confident than they have all season.

Stat that speaks: Combined, Detroit outscored Green Bay and Milwaukee 30-17 in the final five minutes of last week’s games.

4. (6) Butler (15-12, 9-6)
Efficiency margin: +2.8

The Bulldogs are one of only two HL teams that picked up two wins last week. Brad Stevens seems to be making some key adjustments, and Khyle Marshall is back.

Stat that speaks: It seems as though Stevens is successfully adjusting the BU offense to account for their poor long-range shooting. Only 24 of Butler’s 104 field goal attempts in two games last week was from behind the arc (23.1 percent). Down from 34.2 percent 3PA/FGA average over the season.

5. (5) Youngstown State (14-11, 9-6)
Efficiency margin: +0.4

The ‘Guins lost to Butler and beat out a mangled Valparaiso lineup, so they stay right here.

Stat that speaks: Combined, Butler and Valpo had seven steals against YSU in their games last week in 133 total possessions (5.26 percent steal rate). That’s how solid the ‘Guins backcourt is at handling the ball. Some perspective: Cleveland State’s D’Aundray Brown alone gets a steal in a league-best 5.35 percent of his opponents’ possessions.

6. (3) Milwaukee (15-12, 8-7)
Efficiency margin: +2.1

Tailspin? The Panthers dropped both games (on the road at Detroit and Wright State), and have lost six of their last eight.

Stat that speaks: Detroit went 0-13 from three against Milwaukee (season-best for Mil), Wright State went 7-10 (season-worst). Inconsistent?

7. (7) Green Bay (10-14, 6-8)
Efficiency margin: -1.8

The Phoenix did what Milwaukee couldn’t last week: beat Wright State on the road, but they still have some kinks to work out that seem to come from the short bench.

Stat that speaks: Detroit (18-42) and Wright State (14-28) shot a combined 45.7 percent from inside the arc against UWGB. That’s impressive for the young defense.

8. (8) Wright State (12-15, 7-8)
Efficiency margin: -4.4

Wright State is a team of weird disparities. Terrible second-worst-in-league-play offense (0.94 ppp) and solid second-best-in-league-play defense (0.93 ppp).

Stat that speaks: The Raiders lead the league in turnover creation, with one in 27.1 percent of their opponents’ possession in league play.

9. (10) Loyola (6-18, 1-13)
Efficiency margin: -15.4

As Scott Powers writes, it’s been more than a tough season for Porter Moser in his first season at Loyola. But they beat the Flames for their first Horizon League win of the season to temporarily move up a spot in the rankings.

Stat that speaks: When Ben Averkamp and Walt Gibler are both on the floor (which happens quite a bit), they end up with the ball in their hands 54.9 percent of the time.

10. (9) UIC (7-17, 3-11)
Efficiency margin: -12.8

With the Loyola loss the Flames have yet to win on the road this season. That’s no good for morale. Still, they’ve scored better than a point per trip in five of their last six games. That’s improvement.

Stat that speaks: Six of UIC’s top seven possession-earners turn the ball over more than one in every five chances. Marc Brown (18.5 percent TO rate) is the exception.

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