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Horizon League Hoops Power Rankings

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ysuindy:
The blog writer issues weekly power ratings using statistical analysis. 

I would like to use this thread to continue through the season, updating the new rankings and having room for comment.

http://horizonleaguehoops.com/2011/11/21/power-rankings-week-2/

My take on his YSU comments this week : Valuing the ball, not turning it over, just can't shoot.  You have to be doing some other things well to be 3-0 while shooting 37%, no matter who you are playing.


7. (6) Youngstown State (3-0)
Efficiency margin: -4.1 (+0)

Youngstown State, ranked 211th by Pomeroy, stayed perfect with wins over non-D-I Notre Dame Ohio, 80-62, and UC-Riverside, 53-49, in overtime.
Unfortunately the Penguins aren’t making much use of their extremely effective assist-maker in Kendrick Perry, who has an assist in 25.9 of YSU’s possessions that he’s involved in, because their shots just aren’t falling. The Penguins’ 37.4 eFG% is by far the worst in the league and 374th in the nation, but they make up for it with a league-best 14.2 percent turnover rate.
Jerry Slocum almost has the right mix.

IAA Fan:
Those 3's don't hurt Indy! Defense can be just incredible at times. It will be nice to have something like this to follow.

ysuscuba:
Nice post.  I was looking @ stats on the Horizon League and that was the killer stats....field goal percent!! Geez.  The guins are doing well @ 4th in scoring offsense/5th in scoring defense and dead last in field goal % but 1st in Three point fg %.

ysuindy:
Sorry - I lost track of this thread.

YSU up to 6th this week (written before the Fredonia State game)

Although I am not sure where the "deep bench" comment comes from.

In looking at Ken Pomeroy's player rankings, Blake Allen is 9th in the country in percentage of minutes played (94.7%), Kendrick Perry is 53rd and all five YSU starters rank in the top 352.

http://horizonleaguehoops.com/2011/12/05/power-rankings-week-4/#more-231


6. (7) Youngstown State (5-2)
Efficiency margin: -2.7 (+1.7)

Youngstown State beat Detroit convincingly, but lost to Wright State’s patient offense by one point last week. This marks their second straight week of increased efficiency.

The Penguins are becoming a joy to watch, because with Detroit’s up-tempo offense a mangled mess, YSU has an opportunity to take over the high-paced reins. Afterall, they take care of the ball better than anyone in the league and rank eighth nationally with a turnover in just 15.4 percent of their possessions, and they have a deep, injury-free roster that can get up the floor quickly.

YSU is a few more offensive rebounds away from being a real Horizon League contender. Really.

Next: Fredonia State, Tuesday, 7:45 p.m. (Live on HLN)

ysuindy:
Lets see if I can keep this one current too.   ;D

Here is today's rankings

http://horizonleaguehoops.com/2012/01/02/power-rankings-weeks-7-8/

Power Rankings: Weeks 7-8
BY CHRIS BURROWS ⋅ JANUARY 2, 2012 ⋅ POST A COMMENT
1. (3 last week) Butler (8-7, 2-1)
Efficiency margin: +5.9

It’s been a rapid rise for the Bulldogs, who were at No. 3 in last week’s rankings, and No. 5 in the week prior to that. Butler’s efficiency margin suffers from their inefficient start to the year. Over their last five games, in which they have wins over Purdue, Stanford, Green Bay and Milwaukee, Butler is scoring at a rate of 1.07 points per possession (significantly above their adjusted season average of 0.99), and allowing 0.94 ppp for an efficiency margin over those four games of +8.0.

What really earns Butler top honors is their come-from-behind win over Milwaukee Saturday, which is tempered only by the fact that they did it at home. Clutch freshman Kameron Woods came through again in the final seconds as he was fouled on the rebound and sank both from the stripe to lock up the win after Chase Stigall’s big go-ahead three with 20 seconds left.

Next: At Wright State, Friday, 8 p.m. CST

2. (2) Milwaukee (10-5, 3-1)
Efficiency margin: +8.1

The Panthers may have lost four of their last six, both those losses have all come to more-than-worth foes: Northern Iowa (No. 65 at Pomeroy), Marquette (No. 22), Wisconsin (No. 1) and Butler (No. 122). Milwaukee is the highest rated Horizon League representative, at No. 88 on Pomeroy’s board.

They’re doing it with the league’s most efficient defense that allows 0.91 ppp. The Panthers lead every team in the country in defending from beyond the arc (23.4 percent) and have the overall 15th best shot defense that has opponents logging a 42.4 percent eFG%.

Next: At Western Michigan, Tuesday, 6 p.m.

3. (1) Cleveland State (12-3, 2-1)
Efficiency margin: +8.2

The Vikings ended 2011 on a bad note with a 6-point loss to Youngstown State at home (and trailed by 10 points with 20 seconds to play). The Penguins exposed and took advantage of some of CSU’s weaknesses to beat the Vikings for the first time in their last six meetings to make the top of the Horizon a very confusing race.

YSU made Cleveland State lean on its players in the paint, and avoided that dangerous CSU backcourt to get to the charity stripe 11 more times for six more points. Led by Horizon League player of the week Damian Eargle’s 20-10 double-double, the Vikings were also outrebounded, 29-24 in the 63-possession loss.

How dangerous is that backcourt? D’Aundray Brown (with a steal in 5.4 percent of his opportunities) leads the league, Jeremy Montgomery (3.03 percent), Anton Grady (3.00 percent) and Trevon Harmon (2.92 percent) are all in the top 8 of the Horizon in steal percentage. The Vikings create more turnovers than anyone in the nation — one per 29.1 percent of their opponents’ possessions.

Next: vs. UIC, Thursday, 6 p.m.

4. (5) Valparaiso (9-6, 2-1)
Efficiency margin: +0.5

Valparaiso’s defense is faltering. The Crusaders have allowed their last three opponents 1.18 ppp in losses to IUPUI and Milwaukee and a win over Green Bay.

Their Horizon-best offense is what’s keeping them in the positive margin (1.06 ppp), led by Ryan Broekhoff, who leads the league in just so many categories. He has the nation’s 43rd best offensive rating (127.5).

Next: At Detroit, Friday, 6 p.m.

5. (7) Youngstown State (7-6, 2-1)
Efficiency margin: -2.4

The Penguins snapped a four-game skid with a smart road win over Cleveland State. Watch out for Damian Eargle; he has a block in 15.1 percent of his opponent’s possessions. That leads the Horizon and is fourth nationally.

The Penguins are the smoothest ballhandlers in the Horizon with a turnover in 17.1 percent of their possessions.

Next: Vs. Loyola, Thursday, 6 p.m.

6. (4) Detroit (7-9, 1-3)
Efficiency margin: +2.0

The Titans aren’t even attempting to run their tempo anymore, it seems. They split against the bottom-dwelling Chicago teams in games that were 62 and 60 possessions.

Next: Vs. Valparaiso, Friday, 6 p.m.

7. (8) Wright State (8-8, 3-1)
Efficiency margin: -3.2

The Raiders got a crack at the Chicago teams last week, and won both games. Billy Donlon is on the verge of having a contending team if he can just solve WSU’s anemic (0.93 ppp) offense that can’t grab offensive boards to exacerbate their shooting problems (45.2 eFG%).

They’ve now won four in a row, and I still think 6-9 freshman Tavares Sledge deserves more minutes in the WSU frontcourt. He’s leading the team in offensive and defensive rebounding, but only gets 14 minutes per game as a reserve.

Next: Vs. Butler, Friday, 8 p.m.

8. (6) Green Bay (6-8, 2-2)
Efficiency margin: -0.3

The Phoenix ended the year with a pair of losses, to Butler and Valparaiso. Iowa-transfer Brennan Cougill is a big bright spot: He leads the Horizon in defensive rebounding with one in 26.3 percent of opponents’ possessions.

Green Bay’s tight fifth-ranked (in the Horizon) defense keeps them higher in the rankings.

Next: At Milwaukee, Saturday, 7 p.m.

9. (10) UIC (5-9, 1-3)
Efficiency margin: -10.4

The Flames upset Detroit, and almost took down Wright State in a four-point overtime loss. JUCO transfer point guard Gary Talton has emerged as UIC’s needed leader in the backcourt, and he may challenge Milwaukee’s Kaylon Williams for assists leader. Talton (33.8 percent) is second to Williams (40.7).

Next: At Cleveland State, Thursday, 6 p.m.

10. (9) Loyola (5-9, 0-4)
Efficiency margin: -9.1

One of the slowest teams the Horizon has seen in a while, Loyola picked up losses to Wright State and Detroit that weren’t really close (13.5 points average margin). Only Walt Gibler (109.5) and reserve Jonathon Gac (100.6) have offensive ratings over 100, and it looks like injuries may well ruin things on the north side.

Next: At Youngstown State, Thursday, 6 p.m.

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