By Joe Scalzo
scalzo@vindy.com
YOUNGSTOWN
YSU’s playoff hopes have twice been declared dead by some guy at this newspaper — the writer’s name isn’t important — but it looks increasingly likely that the Penguins are playing for more than pride this weekend.
Even with a 5-4 record, YSU’s postseason formula looks like this: Win and you’re (probably) in.
“We feel like if we get this win, everything is back in place for us,” senior defensive end Obinna Ekweremuba said.
At this point, North Dakota State (9-0, 6-0 Missouri Valley) is a playoff lock and Northern Iowa (7-2, 6-1) probably is, too.
After that, things get fuzzy. The FCS playoffs were expanded from 16 teams to 20 last year, and YSU officials believe the MVFC’s third-best team has about an 80 percent chance of making the postseason. (They figure the fourth-best team has about a 20 percent chance of making the playoffs.)
The MVFC sent three teams to the playoffs last season and all were four-loss teams. Before the expansion, just 22 four-loss teams had made the playoffs since the field expanded to 16 in 1986.
This year, the MVFC will likely have four four-loss teams: Illinois State (7-3), which plays Northern Iowa in its season finale, and Indiana State (5-4), which plays Missouri State (1-8, 1-5) and Southern Illinois (2-7, 1-6) in its final two games.
The Redbirds won the head-to-head matchup with the Sycamores and would likely get the nod.
But what if YSU upset No. 1-ranked North Dakota State on the road this weekend, then beat Missouri State on Nov. 19? Well, that would most likely give YSU the nod, provided Illinois State doesn’t beat UNI this weekend.
“They know we’ve got to win both games,” YSU coach Eric Wolford said of his players. “[If we do], I feel confident we’ll get that nod.”
At first glance, YSU’s resume isn’t that strong. The Penguins have just one victory over a winning team — Illinois State — and the other four wins are against teams with a combined record of 6-31. Two of those teams are partial-scholarship FCS schools.
But YSU lost by two on the road to Indiana State and came within a fourth-down goal-line stand in the final minutes of beating Northern Iowa last week. Those close losses, combined with a road win over the nation’s top-rated team in the final two weeks, would give YSU a lot of clout with the selection committee, which selects the 10 at-large teams.
“It doesn’t matter if we don’t win, so that’s got to be our mentality,” Wolford said. “But we’ve got nothing to lose. We can let it all hang out.”
YSU has made the playoffs just once since Jim Tressel’s last season in 2000 — it fell to eventual champion Appalachian State in the 2006 national semifinals — but the school’s name still carries weight nationally.
And a win over North Dakota State would show voters that the Penguins’ future is as bright as its past.
“It would give us a sense that we’re ready to take that next step,” Wolford said. “We talk about being competitive for championships and that is the standard around here. That’s what we’re striving for. That’s what we think about every day. That’s what we coach every day to. That’s what we recruit to every day to. That’s what we wake up and work to.
“That’s what’s expected. We embrace it. We love it. It makes us want to work harder and it makes us want to have self-pride. I don’t feel like it’s really that far off.”
