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Countdown to YSU Season Opener!
The YO Show:
ysufan0505, just curious, is the lol a sign of derision from the statement? And even if they are projected to lose that much in the massey ratings, im still optimistic for the season.
penguinpower:
For what it's worth, I have done a statistical analysis and tests of actual wins vs rankings on Massey and Sagarin to determine who has the better predictor. There is no comparison between the two statistical prediction models. Sagarin wins hands down. Sagarin has the lowest error of predicted vs actual wins and its not even close. Massey has a lot of work to do before he can earn credibility with me. As far as I am concerned I would use the Massey ratings as bathroom tissue.
Penguin Nation:
Looking at the Massey predictions for YSU, four of the MVFC losses are by 3 points. That is consistent w/ what I read on AGS, in that there is expected to be much parity and uncertainty in the middle grouping of the MVFC. I like Massey in that they "get it." They rank MVFC teams deservedly very high, and 1AAA teams are in their rightful place scrapping the bottom. When I see Harvard or Fordham or Lehigh anywhere above the 20 spot...I immediately dismiss the poll as worthless.
It is interesting that Massey predicts Pitt to be the second strongest team on our schedule, which I agree with. You know you are a member of the "SEC of FCS" when your $$ games are easier than some conference games.
Also interesting that Pitt's margin of victory is predicted to greater with Akron than with YSU.
My personal belief is that YSU will finish 4th or 5th...with WIU also being 4th or 5th. Hopefully that is playoff-worthy. A 5th place MVFC finish is equivalent, IMO, to a top 10 FCS finish...not too shabby.
Wick250:
These prediction models work better at the upper level of FBS where strong programs will almost always be good and weak programs will usually be bad. They are less reliable at the FCS level where the addition or subtraction of even one elite player can change the fortunes of a team dramatically. The best example of this is Illinois State. In 2013, they were the poster boy for mediocrity, winning all their home games while losing all their road games. Enter the quarterback transfer from Indiana, a player that nobody at the FCS level could contain in the open field, and Illinois State became an instant title contender. Should that stud be seriously injured now during his senior year, Illinois State would instantly revert back to mediocrity.
Needless to say, coaching changes can also shatter these prediction models. For better or worse, YSU will be a vastly different team under Pelini.
The YO Show:
69 days
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